It all started with the book "Die Tabelle Lügt Immer" (The Table Always Lies) by Christoph Biermann. This work inspired me to dive deep into the topics of chance and luck in football - and particularly into the concepts of Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Points (xP).
The more I studied these metrics, the more I wondered: Why isn't anyone creating a luck and chance-adjusted league table from this? A table that shows how teams really perform - regardless of whether the ball hits the post or goes in at the crucial moment.
So I built it myself.
ehrlichetabelle.com shows the honest performance of teams. Based on Expected Goals (xG), we calculate Expected Points (xP) - the points a team would have deserved based on their actual playing performance, not what they received through luck or misfortune.
The resulting table is "more honest" than the official one: It filters out randomness and shows which teams are truly strong - and which may have just been lucky.