Season Opener of Curiosities: When Fortune Overrules Expected Goals

The first matchday of the new Bundesliga season 2025/26 served up a palette of statistical oddities that would make any xG analyst scratch their head. While FC Bayern München's 6:0 thrashing of RB Leipzig in the Allianz Arena was relatively predictable, other encounters delivered results that have about as much in common with Expected Goals reality as a penalty kick has with a shot from 30 meters.

Match of the Week: When Union Berlin Outsmarts the Statistics

The craziest game of the opening weekend took place at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei. 1. FC Union Berlin beat Stuttgart 2:1 – despite the Swabians having clearly the better chances with 2.2 to 0.85 Expected Goals. An xG difference of 1.35 in favor of the visitors, who still left the pitch as losers. This is exactly the kind of result that drives purists of analytical football observation to fury and romantics to tears of emotion.

The Irons impressively demonstrated that clinical finishing is sometimes more important than chance wastage. Stuttgart, meanwhile, may want to ask themselves whether they perhaps want to convert their scoring opportunities not just theoretically.

Lucky Winner of the Matchday: Köln and Union Berlin in Lottery Mode

Two teams share the title of biggest lucky winner: 1. FC Köln and the aforementioned 1. FC Union Berlin each grabbed a delta of 2.5 points compared to their Expected Points. 1. FC Köln surprisingly won 1:0 at 1. FSV Mainz 05, even though the hosts were the more active team with 1.87 to 1.15 Expected Goals. The RheinEnergieStadion might not have been the destination of choice, but the three points still land in Köln's account.

With results like these, you could almost get the impression that some teams treat their xG values as suggestions rather than obligations. TSG Hoffenheim completes the lucky trio with a 2:1 away win at the BayArena against Bayer Leverkusen – here too, the chance ratios didn't quite match the result.

xG Victims: Stuttgart and Mainz in the Unlucky Duet

The gallery of the disadvantaged is led by Stuttgart, whose -2.5 points delta has already been mentioned. But right behind them lines up 1. FSV Mainz 05, who also left the pitch with the same negative value. At the OPEL ARENA, the 05ers dominated with 1.87 Expected Goals against Köln's 1.15, but still suffered a 0:1 home defeat.

Borussia Mönchengladbach completes the unlucky list with a -1.5 delta. The 0:0 against Hamburger SV at the Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK wasn't a disaster, but with 1.83 to 0.82 Expected Goals, the Foals would have deserved more than a meager point.

Honest League Table: The Great Shift

In the Expected Points table, even after just the first matchday, it shows who's living above and below their means. FC Bayern München leads both the official and the xP table – a rare case of statistical harmony. But behind them, it gets interesting: Borussia Dortmund officially stands in 2nd place, but would only occupy 4th place according to Expected Points. The 3:3 at FC St. Pauli was spectacular, but also lucky for the BVB.

RB Leipzig and Stuttgart, however, are rated significantly better in the honest table than their current position would suggest. The Saxons stand 2nd according to xP, the Swabians 3rd – both significantly higher than in the official ranking. At the other end of the scale, Werder Bremen suffers particularly: officially only in 17th place, the team would at least be in 9th place according to Expected Points. The 1:4 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt was more brutal than the playing performance suggested.

Outlook: Regression Will Come

After just one matchday, such deviations are normal, but they already give first hints about the coming season. Teams like 1. FC Köln, TSG Hoffenheim, and Borussia Dortmund shouldn't get too comfortable with their early lucky streaks – Expected Goals regression is as certain as the Amen in church.

Stuttgart and Mainz, however, can remain optimistic: those who create such good chances as on the first matchday will be rewarded for it over the course of the season. Football may sometimes be unfair, but rarely over 34 matchdays.

The true power relations will crystallize in the coming weeks. Until then, we're left with the realization: sometimes the best stories are those that don't appear in the Expected Goals.