Matchday 10: When Luck Deals the Cards

What a crazy matchday in the Bundesliga! While some teams clinically convert their chances, others stare bewildered at the scoreboard wondering what just happened. Matchday 10 was a masterclass in how football sometimes has less to do with logic and more to do with luck – especially if your name is Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Game of the Week: Gladbach's Lucky Strike at BORUSSIA-PARK

The clash between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln (3-1) was a textbook example of clinical finishing – or as the Expected Goals put it: complete luck. With just 1.1 xG against Köln's strong 2.02 xG, Borussia turned the stadium at BORUSSIA-PARK into a madhouse of impossibilities.

1. FC Köln played the better football, created the clearer chances, and yet were sent home empty-handed. Gladbach, meanwhile, proved that sometimes you just need to be in the right place at the right time – three times in a row. An xG difference of almost a full goal in Köln's favor makes this game the statistical oddity of the matchday.

Lucky Winner of the Matchday: The Gladbach Lottery

With a delta of +2.5 between actual points (3) and Expected Points (0.5), Borussia Mönchengladbach catapults itself to number one on the lucky winner rankings. The Foals showed that you can win even with inferior chances – when the football gods are feeling generous.

But VfB Stuttgart (3-2 against FC Augsburg) and SC Freiburg (2-1 against FC St. Pauli) can also count themselves among the lucky riders of the matchday. Both teams picked up significantly more points than their performance actually warranted, with a +2.0 delta each.

The xG Victim: Köln in the Hard Luck Parade

1. FC Köln stands as the tragic hero of the matchday with a delta of -2.5. 2.5 Expected Points against zero real points – that hurts. The Cathedral City team thus joins an illustrious hard luck society that also includes Borussia Dortmund.

BVB could only manage a 1-1 draw against Hamburger SV at the Volksparkstadion, despite xG values (1.64 vs. 1.06) clearly favoring Dortmund. With a delta of -1.5 between reality and expectation, the mood there was likely dampened too.

The Honest Table: When Numbers Tell the Truth

The official table continues to be led by FC Bayern München – both there and in the honest xP table. With 53 Expected Points, Bayern would have "only" deserved 53 points, but still sit comfortably at the top with 60 points.

The real drama plays out behind them: Borussia Dortmund sits second in the official table (52 points) but would only land in fourth place according to xP (35.5 xP). A delta of +16.5 points makes BVB the league's biggest "hot air balloon."

On the other end of the spectrum, SV Werder Bremen suffers under an unprecedented streak of bad luck: With 28 Expected Points, Bremen should be standing much better than second-to-last place with only 19 points. A delta of -9 points is a damning indictment of their chance conversion.

Also noteworthy: 1. FC Heidenheim sits bottom of the table (14 points) but would have deserved more according to xP (20). After the 0-6 thrashing by Bayer Leverkusen at the BayArena, that's probably only cold comfort though.

Outlook: The Truth Will Out

After ten matchdays, it's slowly becoming clear who really belongs among the top performers and who has mainly been living off luck so far. It'll be particularly interesting for teams like Dortmund and Hoffenheim, who are both living well beyond their xP means.

The honest table suggests that the balance of power could shift significantly in the coming weeks. While FC Bayern München has also earned their top position, several other "high-flyers" might be in for a rude awakening. For the hard luck cases like Bremen or Heidenheim, however, the rule is: the performance is there, the results will follow – if they just keep at it.