Seventh Heaven in the Allianz Arena and Other Bundesliga Fairy Tales

It was one of those matchdays where the Bundesliga showed its most beautiful and cruelest sides simultaneously. While FC Bayern München celebrated a true goal fest in their own living room and Borussia M'gladbach rewrote the xG laws at will, other teams had to learn the painful lesson that football is sometimes the most brutal of all sports. Matchday 16 was action-packed – and as always, the Expected Goals tell a completely different story than the scoreboards.

Match of the Week: Bayern vs. Wolfsburg – When Dreams Come True

8-1 was the final score in the Allianz Arena, but the xG values tell a completely different story: FC Bayern München had "only" 2.15 Expected Goals, VfL Wolfsburg managed 0.91. That means: Statistically, it should have ended 2-1 for Bayern – instead it became a historic goal fest.

Here we see the magic of football in its purest form: sometimes the balls just all go in. The Munich side converted virtually every shot on goal into a goal and impressively proved that with the right clinical finishing, you can turn even few chances into a spectacle. Wolfsburg, on the other hand, can console themselves: their performance was nowhere near as bad as the result suggests.

Lucky Duck of the Matchday: TSG Hoffenheim and the Miracle of Bremen

With a delta of +2.5 points, TSG Hoffenheim was the biggest beneficiary of the matchday. In their 2-0 away win against Werder Bremen, Hoffenheim collected three points despite their Expected Points being a measly 0.5. That's efficiency in its most beautiful form – or simply great luck.

The Kraichgau club proved in Bremen that you don't have to dominate to win. While Werder was clearly more dangerous with 2.29 xG, Hoffenheim made the maximum from few chances. In the eternal discussion between beautiful play and results, TSG consistently chose the latter – and was spot on.

xG Victim: Werder Bremen and the Curse of Home Advantage

Werder Bremen experienced matchday 16 as a personal tragedy: 0-2 against Hoffenheim despite 2.29 xG to 1.3 – a delta of -2.5 points. The Bremen side dominated the match by all rules of the art, but failed due to their own chance conversion and an exceptionally brilliant Hoffenheim goalkeeper.

With only 19 points in the official table, but 28 Expected Points, the North Germans are the prime example of a team that plays significantly better than the table suggests. Nine points difference – that's almost statistically impossible. Werder Bremen is diligently collecting karma points for the second half of the season.

Honest Table Position: When Luck Meets Misfortune

The honest table reveals some interesting shifts: While FC Bayern München deservedly leads both in reality and according to xP, RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart would be the actual pursuers – not Borussia Dortmund with their fairy-tale +16.5 luck points.

Particularly spicy: TSG Hoffenheim would only be in 5th place in the honest table instead of their current Champions League spot at 3rd. Their 15 luck points are impressive, but also dangerous – because luck can disappear faster than it came.

At the other end of the table, Werder Bremen would be safely in mid-table with 28 Expected Points instead of in the relegation spot. 1. FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim, however, are both positioned too low – their performances deserve more points.

Outlook: Luck is a Fickle Thing

Matchday 16 has once again proven: football is unpredictable, but mathematics catches up with everyone. While Hoffenheim and Dortmund can continue riding their wave of luck, they shouldn't forget that Expected Goals always win in the long run.

Werder Bremen, however, can remain optimistic – they're definitely not as bad as the table makes them look. And when luck turns, the current relegation candidate could quickly become a mid-table team again.

The next matchday will show whether the lucky riders can continue their series or whether the xG laws slowly but surely take hold. In the Bundesliga, everything is possible as we know – but probability speaks a different language.