If Statistics Could Cry

On Matchday 22 of the Bundesliga, the Expected Goals were once again as reliable as a weather forecast for the weekend: theoretically sound, but often completely off the mark in practice. While some teams converted their chances like Mario Götze in the 2014 World Cup final, others got a masterclass in "football is just unpredictable." A matchday that once again proved: the most beautiful xG statistic is worthless when the ball simply refuses to go into the net.

Game of the Week: RB Leipzig leaves 1.77 xG on the table

In the category "How to mess up a certain victory," RB Leipzig leads the field clearly with their 2:2 draw against VfL Wolfsburg. The Saxons created chances worth a proud 2.78 xG, while Wolfsburg managed just 1.01 xG – a discrepancy of 1.77 xG, the largest of the entire matchday. But instead of a deserved victory, there was only one point, while the Wolves used their few opportunities with the efficiency of a Swabian housewife. You could almost feel sorry for Leipzig, if it weren't for the many other teams that regularly suffer similar bitter disappointments.

Lucky Devils of the Matchday: Fortune's Hat-trick

Three teams shared the title of biggest lucky devil on Matchday 22: FC Augsburg, Stuttgart, and Eintracht Frankfurt all collected three points despite only deserving one according to Expected Points (Delta: +2). Particularly spicy: Augsburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1:0, even though the visitors actually had slightly better xG values (1.48 vs. 1.39). Sometimes football really is just a matter of luck – and the WWK Arena was the perfect place for a small miracle this time.

xG Victims: RB Leipzig and the misfortune of the diligent

With -1.5 in the delta between actual points and Expected Points, RB Leipzig wasn't just the biggest xG victim of the matchday, but also a prime example of football's unpredictability. While other teams achieved more return with less effort, Leipzig had to experience how their statistically superior performance was rewarded with only a measly point. Behind them follow Werder Bremen and 1. FC Union Berlin (both -1.0), who also had to prove that Expected Points don't get entered into the table at the end of the day.

Honest Table: The league of grand illusion

A look at the honest table reveals the full drama of the current season: FC Bayern München deservedly leads both tables, but behind them reigns pure chaos. Borussia Dortmund sits atop 2nd place in the official table but belongs only on 4th according to xP values – a luck delta of a whopping +16.5 points! Even crazier: TSG Hoffenheim currently stands in 3rd place but only deserved 31 instead of 46 points (+15.0).

At the other end of the honesty scale, Werder Bremen suffers under a drama of biblical proportions: 19 points in reality, but 28 xP tell a different story (-9.0). FC St. Pauli (-4.5) and 1. FC Heidenheim (-6.0) can also sing a song about bad luck, while teams like Augsburg (+2.5) or Hamburger SV (+3.5) can rejoice over unexpected gifts.

Outlook: Luck is a fickle bird

After this wild ride through the world of Expected Goals and unexpected results, we can only hope that luck distributes itself more evenly on the next matchday. The honest table clearly shows: this league is far from what the performances would actually warrant. It will be particularly exciting for teams like Bremen or St. Pauli, who desperately need their solid xG values to finally be converted into points. On the flip side, Hoffenheim and Dortmund are living dangerously – at some point, Lady Luck will come to collect her debts. And then things will get really interesting in the Bundesliga.