Bundesliga Matchday 4: When Football Gods Roll the Dice

The Magic of the Round Leather

On Bundesliga matchday 4, the football gods once again showed that they apparently have a soft spot for chaos. While some teams clinically convert their chances, others are punished with empty hands despite brilliant performances. A matchday that perfectly demonstrates why we all love this crazy sport so much – and sometimes curse it.

Game of the Week: Frankfurt's Dramatic xG Disaster

Eintracht Frankfurt 3-4 1. FC Union Berlin – A game that should serve as a prime example of why Expected Goals sometimes seem like a bad joke. Eintracht dominated with 2.39 xG against Berlin's meager 1.16, but still lost 3-4. An xG difference of +1.23 for Frankfurt, but in the end the three points went to Berlin. This is football in its purest, most frustrating form – brilliant chance creation meets ruthless efficiency. Frankfurt must be wondering which football god they've angered.

Lucky Charm of the Matchday: Union Berlin Celebrates the Big Coup

1. FC Union Berlin showed on matchday 4 how to achieve maximum return with minimal effort. With just 0.5 Expected Points, the Iron Ones still bagged all three points – a delta of +2.5 that should amaze even die-hard Union fans. At the Stadion An der Alten Försterei, they'll celebrate this victory as a masterpiece of efficiency. Sometimes you don't need the prettiest chances, just the coldest nerves in front of goal.

1. FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV can also count themselves among the lucky ones – both earned two points more than their xP values suggested. At the Volksparkstadion they'll be particularly satisfied: HSV won 2-1 against Heidenheim, even though the Expected Goals (2.31 to 2.21) promised a much tighter game.

xG Victims: Eintracht Frankfurt as Unlucky Team of the Week

Eintracht Frankfurt stands as an example for the suffering of all xG victims in this world. The Hessians would have deserved 2.5 Expected Points, but in the end they went away empty-handed – a painful delta of -2.5. At the Commerzbank-Arena they'll be wondering what they've done to football karma. Such games are the reason why coaches lie awake at night philosophizing about football's injustices.

Werder Bremen (-1.0) and 1. FC Heidenheim (-1.0) also belong to the matchday's unlucky teams. Werder lost 0-3 to Freiburg, even though the Expected Goals (1.49 to 1.16) promised a more balanced game.

Honest Table Position: The Great Redistribution

A look at the honest table reveals the usual suspects in new roles: Borussia Dortmund sits atop 2nd place in the official table, but would only rank 4th according to xP values – a whopping 16.5 points more than deserved! TSG Hoffenheim (3rd instead of 5th) and Bayer Leverkusen (6th instead of 6th) complete the list of the fortunate.

At the other end of the spectrum we find Werder Bremen as the biggest unlucky team: Only 17th place in the real table, but 9th according to Expected Points – a dramatic delta of -9 points. 1. FC Heidenheim (-6), FC St. Pauli (-4.5) and 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-4) are also standing significantly worse than their performances would justify.

FC Bayern München leads both the official and honest tables – a sign that quality does indeed prevail. With +7 points above expected, even the Bavarians aren't immune to a small luck factor.

Outlook: The Laws of Statistics Strike Back

Mathematics knows no mercy: what's luck today will be doom tomorrow. Dortmund won't be able to manage their 16.5 bonus points forever, and Hoffenheim shouldn't rely too much on their current position either. Conversely, Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli can hope that statistics will soon bring them their deserved reward.

Matchday 5 will show whether the football gods roll their dice again or finally decide according to performance again. One thing is certain: the honest table will continue to tell its own, mercilessly fair story – away from luck and bad luck, based only on what really happened on the pitch.