Six Goals, Zero Explanations: Leipzig Makes History, the xG Stats Disagree

Sometimes football simply refuses to play along. On Matchday 5 of the Bundesliga, there was a 6:0 that looked like a power demonstration but, according to Expected Goals, was more like a coin flip. Welcome to a world where numbers and results have stopped speaking to each other.

Match of the Week

RB Leipzig against Eintracht Frankfurt, final score 6:0 at the Red Bull Arena. Sounds like a gala performance, a tactical demolition, a match to forget for the Frankfurt side. But the xG numbers tell a completely different story: 2.22 to 2.19 – a match that, by chance evaluation, was practically even. Turning an expected 2:2 into six goals isn't football, it's alchemy. Frankfurt will be asking themselves how you can lose a match in which, statistically speaking, you were almost as dangerous as your opponent – and Leipzig will simply pocket the three points with a smile, not bothering with explanations.

Also worth mentioning is the spectacle in Augsburg: FC Bayern München showed up with an xG value of 3.32, as if ready to dispatch the WWK Arena in befitting fashion – and in the end took home just a tired point. A 2:2 that must feel to the Munich side like a lost dividend.

Lucky Devil of the Matchday

Three teams share the crown of fortune's favourites: 1. FC Köln, RB Leipzig, and Hamburger SV – all with a delta of +2 between actual points and xPoints. 1. FC Köln won their match against Borussia M'gladbach 2:1, even though the xG values (2.08 to 1.90) suggested a close, even contest. Hamburger SV turned around a game in Hoffenheim where the hosts actually had the slightly better chances (1.86 to 1.47 xG), yet still walked away with all three points. One might almost think these three met up before the matchday for some kind of good-luck ritual.

xG Victim

Things get bitter here for the Dortmund faithful: Borussia Dortmund and FC Bayern München share the inglorious title of unluckiest side, both with a delta of -1.5. Dortmund parted ways 2:2 with Werder Bremen at Signal Iduna Park, even though their own xG of 2.69 was clearly above Bremen's 1.09. A win that should have been a formality fizzled out into a draw. Even harder hit is SC Paderborn, who lost 0:2 at home to Stuttgart while their own xG (2.43) was actually higher than their guests' (2.04). Chances galore, points zero – that's the definition of bad luck.

The Honest Table

The official table is led by SC Freiburg with 13 points, closely followed by Borussia Dortmund, also on 13. But take a look at the xP table and the world looks rather different: there, FC Bayern München sits on top with 12.5 xPoints, despite "only" 11 actual points. Freiburg still looks strong according to chance evaluation (2nd place), but Dortmund drops back to 6th in the honest table – a discrepancy of +4 showing that Dortmund owes their position more to results than to actual performance.

Particularly striking: TSG Hoffenheim officially sit only in 17th place, but according to xPoints should actually be ranked 5th – a delta of -6.5, by far the biggest outlier in the entire league. Elversberg, too, have had decent luck with a +4 delta and stand considerably better than their chance conversion would suggest. Bayer Leverkusen, on the other hand, look almost modest in the real table (4th place) – the xP table also places Werkself well up front, so here the statistics largely match reality.

Outlook

With nine of 34 matchdays played, there's still plenty of time for the wheat to separate from the chaff – or not. Teams like Hoffenheim and Mainz, who according to xPoints should be doing significantly better, can hope that their bad luck will soon convert into points. On the other hand, Dortmund and Augsburg should be careful: anyone living off chance conversion for months eventually gets the bill. FC Bayern München, meanwhile, looks like a ticking time bomb pointed in the right direction – if their efficiency ever catches up with their quality, things could get uncomfortable for the competition. The coming matchdays will show whether the table moves closer to the truth – or whether luck simply continues to call the shots.