Matchday 7: When Bad Luck and Good Fortune Ride the Rollercoaster

What a crazy matchday! While FC Bayern München confidently earned their top spot, elsewhere luck was playing hide and seek once again. Most notably: Three teams picked up significantly more points than their performances deserved – while three others went home empty-handed or with just crumbs despite decent showings. Welcome to Bundesliga matchday 7, where the honest table once again shows that football sometimes has little to do with justice.

Match of the Week: When Chances Go Up in Smoke

The biggest xG discrepancy of the matchday came from 1. FC Heidenheim in their 2:2 draw against Werder Bremen. 3.31 to 1.21 – rarely has a team so clearly dominated their chances only to take home just one point in the end. A real drama unfolded at the Voith-Arena: The hosts fired from all cylinders, should have left the pitch with 2.5 points according to the xG values, but got just one measly point for their efforts. Werder Bremen, meanwhile, could celebrate a gifted point – a perfect example of why we need Expected Points to understand what really happened on the pitch.

Lucky Devils of the Matchday: Hoffenheim and Leipzig in Lottery Mode

Two teams shared the title of biggest lucky devils: TSG Hoffenheim and RB Leipzig. Both picked up two more points than their performances deserved. Hoffenheim won 3:0 at FC St. Pauli, even though the xG values (1.44 to 1.13) suggested more of a tight affair. With just 1.0 Expected Points, they really should have settled for a draw – instead they took home the full haul.

RB Leipzig, meanwhile, beat Hamburger SV 2:1, even though the visitors were actually the better team according to xG (1.28 to 0.98). Another piece of evidence that sometimes the ball decides, not the performance. Both teams must have kissed their lucky stars – you gladly take such gifts.

The Hard-Luck Cases: Heidenheim and Freiburg Suffer

The biggest frustration of the matchday was shared between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg – both lost 1.5 points through bad luck. We've already mentioned Heidenheim: 3.31 xG and still only one point against Bremen. A bitter pill for the team that's already sitting six points below their xP value.

SC Freiburg experienced similar pain at the Schwarzwald-Stadion against Eintracht Frankfurt. In the 2:2 draw, the Breisgau side clearly dominated proceedings with 1.51 to 0.86 xG, should have deserved 2.5 points according to Expected Points. Instead they had to settle for one point – painful when you consider that Freiburg already sits six points above their xP value and really can't afford such setbacks.

The Honest Table Situation: Dortmund and Hoffenheim on Cloud Nine

A look at the honest table reveals the usual suspects: Borussia Dortmund sits pretty with a whopping 16.5 points above their deserved value in 2nd place in the official table, but would only rank 4th in the xP table. TSG Hoffenheim (15 point bonus) completes the lucky duo atop the fortune hunters' list.

At the other end of the honesty scale suffer Werder Bremen (-9 points), 1. FC Heidenheim (-6 points) and FC St. Pauli (-4.5 points). Bremen is the most extreme example: officially in 17th place and thus in relegation trouble, the team would stand in a respectable 9th place according to Expected Points. A difference that can decide over millions and existences.

Encouraging: FC Bayern München leads both tables, even if the advantage in the honest version is slightly smaller at seven instead of eight points. At least at the top there's still something like justice.

Outlook: Luck Will Have Its Revenge

The drastic differences between real and expected performance are a warning signal. Teams like Dortmund and Hoffenheim are living dangerously above their means – sooner or later luck will have its revenge. Werder Bremen and Heidenheim, meanwhile, can hope that their solid performances will soon be rewarded with points.

The next matchday will show whether the outliers continue to drift from reality or whether the honest table slowly gains the upper hand. One thing is certain: in a league where there's a 16.5 point difference between reality and merit, anything is still possible. The truth lies somewhere between the goalposts – and Expected Goals tells us exactly where.