Matchday 9: When Luck Struck Triple Double

The Bundesliga in a Frenzy of Probabilities

There are matchdays when football shows its most beautiful, most unpredictable side. On Matchday 9 of the Bundesliga, we witnessed three teams that simply doubled their Expected Points – a statistical rarity that normally occurs at most once per round. While TSG Hoffenheim, RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach perfected their lucky streak, other teams were left empty-handed, wondering why the ball simply wouldn't go into the net.

Game of the Week: Cologne's Goal Spectacular with Mathematical Foundation

At the RheinEnergieStadion, 1. FC Köln delivered the most honest game of the matchday against Hamburger SV. A 4:1 victory for the Cathedral City team, supported by xG values of 2.41 to 1.3 – here the better team actually won. While all around them the football gods were rolling their dice and producing wild results, Köln showed what it looks like when performance and result go hand in hand. A small ray of hope for all who still believe in justice in football.

Lucky Charm of the Matchday: Hoffenheim's Houdini Act

TSG Hoffenheim leads the trio of fortune's favorites. At the VOLKSWAGEN ARENA they won 3:2 against VfL Wolfsburg – even though the Wolves had the better chances with 1.45 to 1.29. According to xG, Hoffenheim should have earned only one point, but bagged three times as many. This is the stuff fairy tales are made of – or at least temporary table positions that look a bit shaky upon closer inspection.

RB Leipzig worked similar magic (3:1 against Stuttgart with balanced xG figures) and Borussia Mönchengladbach with their spectacular 4:0 gala at FC St. Pauli – a result that, with nearly identical Expected Goals (1.75 vs. 1.81), is statistically about as likely as being struck by lightning while winning the lottery.

xG Victims: Frankfurt and Mainz's Bad Luck Streak

At the other end of the luck scale stand two teams that must head into the break bitterly disappointed. Eintracht Frankfurt traveled to Heidenheim with 1.89 xG and still had to settle for a 1:1 draw – the Voith-Arena became the Bermuda Triangle of their goal chances.

In parallel, 1. FSV Mainz 05 experienced a similar fate at home against Werder Bremen: 1.46 to 0.78 in Expected Goals, but it ended just 1:1. Both teams can complain to their statisticians – they apparently forgot to tell the squad that you actually have to convert chances.

Honest League Table: Borussia Dortmund as Phantom League Leaders

A look at our honest table reveals some spicy details. While FC Bayern München sits at the top both officially and according to xP, Borussia Dortmund is the great illusionist of the league: 2nd place with 52 points, but only 35.5 Expected Points – a difference of 16.5 points that is remarkable even by BVB standards.

At the other extreme stands Werder Bremen as the tragic hero of this season: Only 19 real points with 28 Expected Points. The Bremen side are playing Bundesliga football but getting Regionalliga results – a fate that moves any neutral observer to pity.

Particularly bitter: In the xP table, the Hanseatic club would be ninth and thus comfortably in mid-table. Instead, they're fighting relegation in reality.

Outlook: When Will the Lucky Bubble Burst?

Mathematics is patient but relentless. Teams like Borussia Dortmund and TSG Hoffenheim are currently living on borrowed time – and eventually the Expected Goals will come calling for payment. Conversely, Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli (also 4.5 points below their xP value) can hope for better times.

Matchday 10 will show whether statistics continue to make a mockery of football or whether regression to the mean finally strikes. One thing is certain: In a league where three teams simultaneously double their Expected Points, anything is possible – including the opposite.