La Liga: Between Genius and Madness – Matchday 2 in an honest review

When statistics explain football

The second matchday of the Spanish league 2025/26 offered everything a statistician's heart desires: spectacular goals, bitter disappointments and plenty of discussion material for those who believe that Expected Goals say more about a team than the actual result. While some clubs were allowed to celebrate undeserved points, others came up empty-handed – despite having played the better game.

Match of the Week: Villarreal turns the Estadio de la Cerámica into a madhouse

Villarreal CF's 5:0 victory against Girona FC at the Estadio de la Cerámica was the perfect example of why football is sometimes simply crazy. With Expected Goals of 2.07 to 0.72, you would have expected a solid 2:0 for the home side – instead it became a goal fest of epic proportions. Five goals from 2.07 xG? Someone apparently forgot to make offerings to the football gods.

Villarreal CF currently sits in third place in the official table – in the honest table, however, the team would be in 13th place. With 51 points from Expected Points of only 27.5, they are by far the biggest lucky charm in the league. A difference of 23.5 points is remarkable even by La Liga standards.

Lucky charm of the matchday: Getafe and Betis share the honor

Two teams can call themselves the lucky charms of the matchday: Getafe CF surprisingly won 2:1 away at Sevilla FC, although the Expected Goals (1.18 to 1.49) clearly favored the Andalusians. With three points instead of the expected one point, Getafe CF can celebrate a perfect weekend.

At the same time, Real Betis managed an equally lucky 1:0 victory against Deportivo Alavés. With xG values of 1.65 to 1.33, the game could well have ended in a draw – instead Real Betis took all three points. In the honest table, Real Betis would only be in eighth place, in reality they sit in fifth.

xG victims: Atlético Madrid quarrels with the football gods

The biggest disappointment was experienced by Atlético de Madrid in their home Estadio Wanda Metropolitano. The 1:1 against Elche CF felt like a defeat, as the Expected Goals spoke a clear language in favor of the capital club with 1.77 to 0.66. Instead of the deserved three points, there was only one – a delta of -1.5 points that hurts.

Sevilla FC and Deportivo Alavés can also be classified in the category of unlucky teams. Both teams lost despite decent Expected Points values and can justifiably be annoyed about football injustice.

The honest table situation: If performance ruled

At the top, little would change in an honest world: FC Barcelona and Real Madrid would also lead on Expected Points – but with significantly less advantage. Both teams have sneaked themselves comfortable cushions in the real table (6.5 and 7.5 points too many respectively).

The biggest outrage remains Villarreal CF: 3rd place in the official table, 13th place in the xP table. On the other hand, Athletic Club, currently only eighth, would be in fourth place in a fair world. The Basques have a whopping eleven points fewer than their performance would have deserved.

Rayo Vallecano (15th place instead of 9th) and Valencia CF (10th place instead of 16th) also show how much luck and bad luck can shape a season.

Outlook: Truth prevails

With only two matchdays played, there's still plenty of time for corrections. History teaches us: Over 38 matchdays, Expected Points usually align with real points. Teams like Villarreal CF will sooner or later be caught up by statistics, while unlucky teams like Athletic Club can hope for better times.

The next matchday will show whether the trends continue or whether the first corrections set in. In a league where Real Madrid and FC Barcelona are at the top despite everything, one thing is certain: it won't be boring.

*The honest table is based on Expected Goals and Expected Points – it shows what the league would look like if only playing quality and not luck decided.*