Matchday 25: When Luck and Misfortune Go Hand in Hand

The football gods demonstrated their very own notion of justice on Matchday 25 of La Liga. While Villarreal, Sevilla and Osasuna proved to be true fortune's favorites, Real Madrid and co. had to painfully learn that the better team doesn't always win. A matchday that once again proves: Expected Goals are a beautiful thing – but goals are scored on the pitch, not on the stat sheet.

Game of the Week: Celta dominates in Balaídos spectacle

If you're looking for a textbook example of "How football should be played," you'll find it in RC Celta de Vigo's 2-0 victory over RCD Mallorca. With 2.11 xG against a measly 0.27 for the visitors, the Galicians demonstrated at Abanca-Balaídos how to control a game and win deservedly. An xG difference of 1.84 – that's La Liga football by the book.

Quite different was the spectacle between Real Sociedad and Real Oviedo: 3-3 despite only marginal xG superiority for the hosts (1.83 to 1.57). At Estadio Municipal de Anoeta, emotions ran high, defenses ran low – a feast for neutrals, a nightmare for tactics fanatics.

Lucky Trio: Three teams, one destiny

Three teams can celebrate themselves as the matchday's fortune's favorites: Villarreal CF, Sevilla FC and CA Osasuna – all collected three points despite their Expected Points suggesting they deserved closer to one measly point.

The most brazen of these was Villarreal at Estadio de la Cerámica. Against Valencia CF, 1.45 xG was enough for a 2-1 victory, while the visitors went empty-handed despite 1.16 xG. The Yellow Submarine continues to ride the wave of luck – they now have an incredible 23.5 more points on the board than their performance would suggest. A figure that would make any xG purist weep.

xG Victims: Real Madrid learns the harsh La Liga reality

Los Blancos must ask themselves after the 1-2 defeat at CA Osasuna why they left the pitch as losers despite 1.7 xG against just 1.28 for the hosts. At Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna proved that sometimes efficiency is more important than dominance – a bitter moment for Real Madrid, who already sit 7.5 points above their xP value but had bad luck for once.

Similarly frustrated must have been those in charge at Getafe CF. Despite slight xG superiority (0.75 to 0.68) against Sevilla FC, they conceded a 0-1 defeat at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez – sometimes a lucky punch is all it takes.

Honest table position: The great lie of Villarreal CF

A look at the honest xP table reveals the full drama of the current season: While FC Barcelona also leads sovereignly in the Expected Points ranking, Villarreal would plummet from 3rd place to 13th – a fall that is unprecedented in modern La Liga.

The season's big sufferer remains Athletic Club. With 45 Expected Points in 4th place of the honest table, but only 34 real points in 8th position – the Basques are the prime example that football can sometimes be unfair. Eleven points of bad luck is exceptionally bitter even by La Liga standards.

At the other end, Real Betis (11 lucky points) benefits from fate, while Girona FC sits significantly higher than performance would justify with 8 bonus points.

Outlook: Luck is fickle

With 13 matchdays still to go, it will be exciting to observe whether xG justice can prevail. Villarreal should expect tough weeks ahead – 23.5 lucky points can't be defended long-term. At the same time, Athletic Club could hope for a late surge if the pendulum finally swings the other way.

The next matchday will show whether the football gods continue to indulge their whims or whether Expected Goals justice slowly establishes itself. One thing is certain: in this crazy La Liga season, nothing is decided yet – neither in the fight for the top nor in the relegation battle.