La Liga Matchday 3: When Luck Blindfolds You and Truth Hurts

The Beautiful World of Illusion vs. Bitter xG Reality

In the Primera División, matchday 3 has once again made it abundantly clear that football is sometimes less sport and more lottery. While some teams are proving to be lucky charms, raking in maximum points with minimal performance, others stand there like the unlucky punter who always picks the wrong slot machine at the casino. The Expected Goals and Expected Points are once again ruthlessly revealing where the league really stands – and where pure chance reigns supreme.

Match of the Week: Real Oviedo works magic against Real Sociedad

The perfect example of "football is unpredictable" came from Real Oviedo against Real Sociedad. At the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, the hosts won 1:0 – despite the Basques being more than twice as dangerous with 2.02 xG compared to Oviedo's 0.86 xG. An xG difference of 1.16 in favor of the visitors, who still went home empty-handed: That's La Liga in its purest form.

Real Sociedad dominated the game by all the rules of the art, but failed against a goalkeeper in exceptional form or simply the malice of objects. Real Oviedo, on the other hand, proved that sometimes a single moment of determination is enough to steal three points. Statisticians weep, romantics rejoice.

Lucky Charm of the Matchday: Sevilla FC cashes in without convincing

The jackpot of matchday 3 was clearly hit by Sevilla FC. The Andalusians won away at Girona FC 2:0 and collected three points, even though according to xP they only deserved 0.5 points. A delta of +2.5 points – that's luck in its purest form.

Girona dominated with 2.05 xG against a meager 1.26 xG from the visitors, but in the end, only the result on the scoreboard counts. Sevilla FC proved at the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi that efficiency is sometimes more important than dominance. The fans will cope with it – the xG nerds less so.

xG Victim of the Matchday: Real Sociedad and Girona FC share the misfortune

Two teams have to share the inglorious title of biggest unlucky bird: Both Real Sociedad and Girona FC each lost 2.5 Expected Points less than they actually deserved. Both teams proved that in La Liga you can apparently do everything right and still come away empty-handed.

Real Sociedad should have deserved 2.5 points according to xG, but went home with zero. Girona fared no better – despite a superior performance against Sevilla, the Catalan team remained without points. Sometimes football is just cruelly unfair.

The Honest Table Situation: Villarreal lives in a parallel world

A look at the xP table reveals some spicy truths. At the top, both FC Barcelona (61 points, 54.5 xP) and Real Madrid (60 points, 52.5 xP) remain leading, but both teams are living beyond their means – Barcelona by 6.5, Real Madrid by a whopping 7.5 points.

However, the absolute reality denier is Villarreal CF: The Yellow Submarine sails in 3rd place in the official table with 51 points, but according to xP would only deserve 27.5 points. A difference of a staggering 23.5 points! This discrepancy is so large that you wonder if Villarreal has made a pact with the football gods.

At the other end, Athletic Club suffers from chronic bad luck: 45 Expected Points stand against only 34 real points – a difference of -11 points. In the honest table, the Basques would be in 4th place instead of the frustrating 8th position.

Outlook: Regression is coming for sure

Mathematics is merciless: Over the course of the season, such extremes usually balance out. Villarreal will sooner or later have to pay for their lucky streak, while teams like Athletic Club or Real Sociedad can hope for more positive times.

The next matchday will show whether the xG trends continue or whether the pendulum swings back in the other direction. In La Liga, anything is possible – and that's exactly what makes this league so fascinatingly unpredictable.

In the end, statistics always win. The question is just: when?