When Madrid Loses Twice, But Only Once on Paper

Spanish reality has a nasty sense of humor

There are matchdays when result and performance diverge so wildly that you'd think the league had been played twice – once for real, and once for the xG models to ponder in disbelief. Matchday 4 of La Liga was one of those. Three teams got to celebrate victory points they arguably didn't deserve, while two giants of Spanish football drove home having played the better football than their opponents – and still took zero points with them. Welcome to the honest table.

Match of the week: Valencia demolishes itself

The biggest xG discrepancy of the weekend happened at the Estadio de Mestalla, where Valencia CF went down 0:5 against FC Barcelona. That would already be clear enough on its own, but the xG numbers make it even more dramatic: 0.53 to 2.88 xG means a difference of 2.35 – the clearest case of the matchday that a scoreline doesn't lie, it actually undersells it. FC Barcelona were simply playing in another league altogether, and Valencia remain stuck deep in the relegation zone with just one point from four games, backed up statistically by disastrous offensive numbers.

Lucky charm of the matchday: A trio this time

This time there's no single lucky devil, but three teams who have to share the Fortuna jersey: Real Sociedad, Deportivo La Coruña, and Athletic Club all picked up 3 points despite their xG numbers only justifying 0.5 expected points – a delta of +2.5 each. Especially bitter for the stats crowd: Athletic Club scored three goals against Atlético de Madrid on just 1.15 xG, while their opponents, with 1.89 xG, should arguably have played the better match. Deportivo La Coruña, meanwhile, is now the biggest riser of the season – 5th in the official table on a measly 3.5 xPoints, a discrepancy of +4.5. A trip to Riazor currently seems to be an excursion into bad luck for opponents.

xG victims: Three clubs, one shared misery

On the other side of the Fortuna coin stand three clubs with exactly the same delta of -2.5: Real Madrid, Atlético de Madrid, and Villarreal CF. Particularly painful is the case of Real Betis against Real Madrid: Los Blancos created 2.38 xG against the hosts' mere 1.26 at the Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla – and still lost 0:1. Villarreal CF, meanwhile, suffered a 2:3 defeat at their own Estadio de la Cerámica against Deportivo La Coruña, despite being clearly superior on 2.10 to 0.95 xG. The Yellow Submarine now sit on a season-total difference of -5 – the second-worst mark in the league.

The honest table: Who's deceiving, who's being deceived

A look at both tables reveals fascinating distortions. Right at the top, the leading duo swaps places: FC Barcelona officially lead with 12 points, but in the xP table Real Madrid sit ahead with 10 xPoints – a deficit for the record champions of 3.5 points against their own tally, a kind of reality discount, so to speak.

Most striking, though, are the modest underdogs: Villarreal CF and Elche CF both sit officially in the bottom third of the table (17th and 19th respectively), but by xP would rank 3rd and 4th – with 7 xPoints each against only 2 and 1 actual points respectively. Both teams are playing considerably better football than their record suggests, and must be wondering when their luck will finally turn.

On the other side sits Deportivo Alavés, enthroned in 2nd place with 10 points, though xP would only justify 6.5 – nice to look at, but statistically a house of cards. Something similar applies to Real Betis, who are 4th with 9 points, though xP-wise only 5 points would be justified.

Outlook: Can the stats fight back?

The big question ahead of matchday 5: When will reality catch up with the lucky ones? Villarreal CF and Elche CF are sitting on a powder keg of unused xG potential and could explode at any moment – provided their bad luck finally lets up. Real Madrid, meanwhile, must ask themselves how long they can keep missing chances before the rest of the league notices that the Royals are actually the strongest footballing side in the league. And Deportivo La Coruña? The question isn't whether, but when the return to xG reality will come. By then, the honest table should once again move a little closer to the official one – until the next matchday full of surprises.