Espanyol and Racing raid the lottery office, while Alavés picks up the bill

The reality check after five matchdays

Ten matches, one common denominator: the shot statistics took another day off while actual goals called the shots. Nowhere is that clearer than at RCD Espanyol and Racing Santander – two teams who handed the keys to fortune this matchday. On the flip side: Deportivo Alavés and CA Osasuna, who did everything right on the pitch and still walked away empty-handed. Welcome to the honest table, where finishing is a side issue and the truth only starts after the final whistle.

Match of the week: Athletic Club vs. Elche CF

A 1-1 sounds fair enough at first – until you look at the xG numbers. Athletic Club racked up a hefty 1.93 Expected Goals at San Mamés Barria, while Elche CF managed just 0.34. That's not a discrepancy anymore, that's a statistical slap in the face. Athletic Club dominated by the book but only converted one point into reality, while Elche basically packed their entire offensive output of the night into a single shot – and still drew level. If anyone still doubted that football can simply be unfair: here's the proof, xgDiff 1.59.

Lucky devil of the matchday: the ex-aequo party at Espanyol and Racing

Two teams share the crown of fortune's favourites this week: RCD Espanyol and Racing Santander both grabbed maximum points with an expected points value of just 0.5. A delta of +2.5 – that's not football, that's magic. Espanyol won away at CA Osasuna despite an xG of only 0.85 against 1.48 – away from home, against the more dominant side, and still pocketed three points. Racing Santander followed suit against Deportivo Alavés, even though the Basques were statistically clearly superior (1.99 to 1.19 xG). Two wins that paid out at the statistics casino without the actual performance justifying it.

xG victims of the matchday: Deportivo Alavés and Osasuna suffer together

If you could double bad luck, this would be it: Deportivo Alavés and CA Osasuna both walked away with zero points from an expected value of 2.5 – a delta of a whopping -2.5. Alavés actually dominated the game away at Racing Santander (1.99 xG to 1.19), but lost anyway. Osasuna, meanwhile, created plenty of chances against Espanyol (1.48 xG) but ended up with nothing to show for it. Two teams who did everything right tactically and still had to foot the bill from the football gods.

Honest table standings: who's bluffing their way through?

The official table shows FC Barcelona on top with 15 points – but the xP table says Real Madrid should actually be leading, with 12.5 expected points against just 9.5 for Barça. A gap of 5.5 points that the Catalans statistically haven't earned. Real Betis (3rd officially, but only 7th by xP) and Deportivo La Coruña (7th officially, but only 14th by xP) are also currently living beyond their means.

At the other end of the truth scale, Villarreal CF and Elche CF are fighting through the shallows of the table, even though their xP values of 7.5 each would comfortably place them in the safe midfield – 11th and 12th by xP respectively, but 18th and 19th officially. Both teams are the big losers of reality and the secret winners of statistics. Athletic Club (9th officially, 5th by xP) and CA Osasuna (11th officially, 6th by xP) also have every right to feel hard done by.

Outlook: can statistics fight back?

The biggest contradiction remains at the top: Real Madrid with the better foundation, FC Barcelona with the fatter points tally. This gap will either close over the course of the season – or Barcelona will prove that efficiency is also a quality that shouldn't be talked down. Villarreal CF and Elche CF, meanwhile, urgently need a turn for the better, otherwise the statistical truth threatens to become a bitter table reality. And Espanyol and Racing Santander? They should frame this matchday – lucky streaks like this rarely come twice.