La Liga Matchday 6: When the Football God Rolls the Dice

The Lottery Continues

Anyone who thought the Spanish Primera División was a performance sport was proven wrong on Matchday 6. In the league of big names, there's currently less football being played than dice being rolled – and some teams seem to have prepared their dice with superglue. While some teams grab a point with 0.78 xG, others only manage draws despite dominant performances. Welcome to the world where Expected Goals meet harsh reality.

Match of the Week: Espanyol vs. Valencia – Goalkeeper Roulette at RCDE Stadium

The match of the week takes us to the RCDE Stadium, where RCD Espanyol and Valencia CF produced a 2:2 that statistically should never have ended that way. The hosts dominated with 2.59 xG against a measly 0.67 from the visitors – a discrepancy of almost two goals. It was like attacking with a tank against a scooter and still only managing a draw.

Valencia CF impressively demonstrated that you can cause maximum damage with minimal effort. While Espanyol created chance after chance, the Valencians apparently only needed two half-chances for two goals. Sometimes football isn't a request concert after all – except for the visitors from Valencia, whose every wish was granted by the football gods.

Lucky Charm of the Matchday: Villarreal CF – The Yellow Submarine on a Lucky Streak

Villarreal CF continues their fairytale ride through the season and secured the title of lucky charm with their 2:1 victory over Sevilla FC. With an xG ratio of 1.43 to 1.67, the Andalusians should have had the upper hand, but the yellow submarine seems equipped with a magic compass.

In the overall table, Villarreal CF sits on a phenomenal 51 points in 3rd place, while the honest table sees them in 13th – a difference of 23.5 points from their xP value. This isn't a lucky streak anymore, this is almost supernatural. The team from the ceramics city seems to have found the secret recipe for efficiency: Create little, convert everything.

xG Victims: Athletic Club, Celta Vigo and Espanyol – The Draw Triumvirate of Bad Luck

Three teams share the dubious title of biggest unlucky team: Athletic Club, RC Celta de Vigo and RCD Espanyol all received only one point instead of the deserved three despite better performances.

Athletic Club were hit particularly hard at San Mamés Barria. With 1.96 xG against Girona FC's 0.75, the Basques dominated the game by every rule in the book, but had to settle for a 1:1 draw. Looking at the bigger picture, Athletic Club are actually the biggest unlucky team in the league: 11 points below their xP value of 45 – that hurts.

RC Celta de Vigo suffered a similar fate against Real Betis (1.56 vs. 0.96 xG), while we already honored Espanyol as match of the week. Sometimes bad luck just accumulates on one matchday like rainwater in a clogged gutter.

Honest Table Standings: The Great Redistribution

The honest table reveals the league's true face: While FC Barcelona and Real Madrid also deserve their top spots according to xP (albeit with less of a lead), in a fair world Athletic Club would be in 4th place instead of their disappointing 8th position.

Villarreal CF, however, would plummet from their fairytale 3rd place to 13th – ten places lower! Similarly drastic would be the fall for Real Betis (from 5th to 8th) and Girona FC (from 11th to 18th). On the flip side, Rayo Vallecano (from 15th to 9th) and Valencia CF (from 16th to 10th) could celebrate significantly better positions.

FC Barcelona leads both tables, but the lead in the xP table is much narrower – a sign that even the Catalans are favored by luck.

Outlook: The Carousel Keeps Spinning

After six matchdays, it's becoming clear: This season will be a textbook on how much luck and bad luck can influence football. Villarreal CF will eventually have to return to reality, while teams like Athletic Club can hope that their performances will soon translate into points.

The coming matchdays will show whether Expected Goals will prevail or whether we'll continue to witness one of the craziest seasons in recent La Liga history. One thing is certain: It won't be boring as long as the football god continues to be so generous with his lucky dice.