La Liga 7th Matchday: Real Oviedo and the Great Fortune Cookie

The Moment When Football Becomes Lottery

What do Real Oviedo and Sevilla FC have in common? Both proved on Matchday 7 that football is sometimes less sport and more gambling. While FC Barcelona continues to show the most honest table leadership in the league, other teams ensure that the Expected Goals curve swings like a seismograph in an earthquake zone. Welcome to a league where 5:2 victories with 1.56 xG are possible and where Real Oviedo wins against Valencia CF with an xG value of 1.17, despite the hosts putting up 1.79 xG.

Game of the Week: Atlético vs. Real Madrid – The Great xG Confusion at Wanda Metropolitano

A 5:2 victory sounds like a show of force. A 5:2 victory with only 1.56 own Expected Goals against the opponent's 0.85 sounds like... well, what exactly? Atlético de Madrid achieved the impossible in the derby against Real Madrid: With an xG difference of a measly 0.71 in their favor, they hit the net seven times. While Real Madrid statistically didn't even deserve a single goal, they conceded five. It's like going into a casino with a lottery ticket and hitting the jackpot three times in a row.

The Madrileños impressively prove that sometimes the art of football lies in making much out of little – even if that has little to do with sustainable football.

Lucky Charm of the Matchday: Real Oviedo – The Magic Trick from Asturias

Tied for the luck index with 2.5 bonus points: Real Oviedo and Sevilla FC. But the promoted side from Asturias deserves special mention. Managing a 2:1 victory at Estadio de Mestalla against Valencia CF (1.79 xG) with just 1.17 xG is quite remarkable. While the Valencians were statistically the better team, they went away empty-handed. Real Oviedo proved: Sometimes it's enough to be in the right place at the right time – and a bit of luck never hurts.

With 17 points from 7 games, the traditional club from 1926 still sits in last place, but with such surprise victories, staying up could indeed be possible.

xG Victim of the Matchday: Rayo Vallecano – The Madrid Misfortune Paradox

There are days when the football god hates you. Rayo Vallecano experienced such a day. Statistically dominating with 2.02 xG against Sevilla FC (0.52 xG), but ultimately losing 0:1. The delta of -2.5 points makes them the biggest unlucky ones of the matchday – tied with Valencia CF.

Particularly bitter: In the honest table based on Expected Points, Rayo Vallecano would stand at 9th place with 30.5 xP. In the real table, they rank 15th with only 26 points. That's 4.5 points of bad luck – a lot of timber in a league where every point counts.

Honest Table Position: Villarreal – The Great Illusion

The official table lies, and it lies massively. Villarreal CF sits at 3rd place with 51 points, but should be at 13th place with 27.5 Expected Points. A luck delta of 23.5 points – that's almost obscene. FC Barcelona leads both the real table (61 points) and the honest table (54.5 xP), thus showing the most consistent performance.

It gets dramatic with Athletic Club: Officially 8th with 34 points, but deserving 4th place with 45 xP. Eleven points of bad luck – that hurts. Real Madrid profits as usual from momentum: 60 points real vs. 52.5 xP means a nice luck bonus of 7.5 points.

Outlook: Truth (Usually) Prevails

After seven matchdays, a pattern is crystallizing: FC Barcelona dominates rightfully, Real Madrid won't be able to maintain their lucky streak forever, and Villarreal CF should slowly start worrying. Teams like Rayo Vallecano and Valencia CF have played better football than their point tally suggests – luck will eventually turn.

Athletic Club is the secret winner of the xG analysis: With 45 Expected Points they would be Champions League candidates, with 34 real points they're fighting for international recognition. Sooner or later this will balance out – football is sometimes lottery, but over 38 matchdays, truth usually prevails.