Matchday 8: When Sevilla Schools Barça and Luck Trumps Skill

The Impossible Made Possible: Sevilla Dismantles Barcelona

You rub your eyes and look at the result again: Sevilla FC absolutely demolished FC Barcelona 4-1. Things got wild at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán – but not in the way the Expected Goals would have predicted. While FC Barcelona created the better chances with 1.87 xG, Sevilla FC converted their more modest 1.52 xG into four goals. That's efficiency at a level that would make even German engineers jealous.

Even wilder: FC Barcelona sits atop the honest table with 54.5 Expected Points, yet still conceded four goals to a team that stands perfectly balanced with exactly 29.0 xP. Sometimes football just writes its own laws – and laughs at all the statistics while doing so.

Lucky Charm of the Matchday: Girona FC Conjures Up Three Points

Girona FC demonstrated on matchday 8 what "maximum points from minimum performance" really means. Against Valencia CF they won 2-1, even though the Expected Goals showed a clear 0.77 to 1.95 in favor of the visitors. With just 0.5 Expected Points, Girona FC should have earned about half a point – but pocketed a full three. That delta of +2.5 points makes them the luckiest team of the matchday.

In the honest xP table, Girona FC sits in 18th place – in the official table they're ranked 11th. Eight places difference! The Estadi Municipal de Montilivi seems to be a true fortune stadium, where dreams come true and Expected Goals are just waste paper.

The xG Victim: Valencia CF and the Law of Series

Valencia CF is currently experiencing a phase where even the weather gods seem to be against them. Against Girona FC they created 1.95 xG compared to just 0.77 for their opponents – and still lost 2-1. With 2.5 Expected Points they should have earned almost the full three points, but went home empty-handed. That delta of -2.5 makes them the unlucky team of the matchday.

In the honest table, Valencia CF would sit in 10th place, but in reality they're wallowing around 16th. The Estadio de Mestalla currently seems to be a Bermuda Triangle for chance conversion – 3.5 points fewer than deserved is a real knockout blow.

The Honest Table Situation: Villarreal, the Phantom of the League

While at the top FC Barcelona and Real Madrid lead both officially and according to xP (with 6.5 and 7.5 lucky points respectively), the real drama of the season reveals itself further down. Villarreal CF officially sits in 3rd place, but according to Expected Points should be in 13th. 23.5 points more than deserved – that's no longer a lucky streak, that's almost supernatural.

On the flip side, Athletic Club suffers from a reverse curse: officially eighth, but according to xP they should be fourth. Eleven points fewer than deserved – at San Mamés Barria there seems to be a goal embargo in effect.

Rayo Vallecano completes the tragedy department: as the biggest loser in the honesty table, they would climb from 15th place to 9th if performance decided over luck.

Outlook: Will Luck Become a Habit?

After eight matchdays, it's becoming clear who's been kissed by fortune this season and who seems married to misfortune. Villarreal CF is living dangerously – 23.5 points ahead of their honest performance is a mortgage that will eventually have to be paid. Athletic Club, on the other hand, can hope that their strong xP values will soon convert into real points.

The top of the table remains exciting: both FC Barcelona and Real Madrid have earned their leadership positions according to Expected Points as well, even though both are living somewhat beyond their means. The coming matchdays will show whether the lucky charms can continue their streak – or whether the honest table slowly but surely gains the upper hand.