Matchday 1: When first impressions deceive

A season start full of surprises

The first matchday of the new Premier League season 2025/26 is history – and it has already shown why Expected Goals are often wiser than the mere result on the scoreboard. While some teams are already proving to be lucky charms, others had to painfully learn that good performance doesn't automatically get rewarded. A matchday full of paradoxes that sets the stage for an exciting season.

Game of the Week: Manchester United vs. Arsenal FC - The great misunderstanding

At Old Trafford, what was probably the most frustrating game of the matchday took place. Arsenal FC won 1:0, but the xG values tell a completely different story: Manchester United dominated with 2.22 to 1.09 Expected Goals – a discrepancy of 1.13 that painfully illustrates how cruel football can sometimes be.

The Red Devils created chance after chance, while Arsenal FC scored a goal from far less promising situations with their classic efficiency. A perfect example of why managers like to speak of "undeserved defeat" after such games – even when they've won.

Lucky charm of the matchday: Arsenal FC - The art of perfect timing

Speaking of Arsenal FC: The Gunners are not only top of the official table, but also the big lucky charms of the opening matchday. With only 0.5 Expected Points, they should actually have settled for a meager draw – instead they took all three points. A delta of +2.5 points that shows: sometimes it's better to be in the right place at the right time than to create the most beautiful chances.

But Arsenal FC aren't the only ones who can celebrate undeserved luck: Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur also each picked up two points more than their performance deserved. Spurs beat Burnley FC 3:0 as expected, although the xG values (1.79 to 1.41) suggested a much tighter game.

The xG victim: Manchester United - When bad luck becomes systematic

Nobody was punished by the football gods like Manchester United. The -2.5 points difference between reality and Expected Points is almost cruel. While they literally overran their opponents with 2.22 xG, they left empty-handed. A déjà-vu feeling for all United fans who already know such games all too well.

Also bitterly caught out: Newcastle United and Chelsea FC (both -1.5 delta). The Blues only managed a 0:0 against Crystal Palace, although they were clearly superior with 1.89 to 1.13 xG. The Magpies created 1.66 Expected Goals at Aston Villa but also had to settle for a goalless draw.

The honest table situation: Who's deceiving, who's real?

A look at our honest xP table reveals interesting shifts after just one matchday: While Arsenal FC are at the top both in reality and deservedly so, other teams already show a different picture.

The biggest deceiver is currently Aston Villa: 3rd place in the official table, but only 8th place according to Expected Points – a massive difference of 16.5 points! Villa have apparently specialized in making much out of little.

On the other side, Wolverhampton Wanderers stand as the biggest victims: table position 20 with only 10 points, but actually they should have deserved 28 Expected Points – a painful difference of 18 points. Rarely has the discrepancy between performance and result been so brutally visible.

Nottingham Forest (-7.5), Tottenham Hotspur (-3.5) and Newcastle United (-5.5) also stand significantly better in the honest table than their real position suggests.

Outlook: The truth will out

After just one matchday, all doors are naturally still open, but the first tendencies are recognizable. The big lucky charms like Aston Villa won't be able to maintain their undeserved position all year long – regression to the mean is just a matter of time.

Conversely, teams like Wolverhampton Wanderers or Nottingham Forest can hope that their strong performances will soon translate into points. The next matchday will show whether the first xG trends are confirmed or whether the chaos of the season start continues to increase.

One thing is certain: in a league where the first matchday already provided so many surprises, it remains exciting – for both the table and the honest table alike.