Old Trafford Turns into a Rollercoaster, Arsenal Float on the Wrong Floor

Hook Intro

Eight goals, one draw, and a coaching staff that probably needs to renew its Valium prescription: Matchday 10 of the Premier League has once again proven that the real table and the xP table sometimes look like two completely different leagues. Sitting pretty at the top is Arsenal FC with 27 points – according to xP, they'd only be sixth. And Manchester United? Officially 18th, but according to expected points they'd be comfortably in the hunt for European places. Welcome to Premier League Wonderland, Matchday 10.

Match of the Week

There are matches you just want to shout about, and then there's Old Trafford on Saturday: Manchester United against Aston Villa ended 4-4 – a fireworks display that had absolutely nothing to do with the xG numbers (2.85 to 1.42). Manchester United should have won this game comfortably based on Expected Goals, yet despite having twice the chance superiority, they only came away with a single point. The biggest xG discrepancy of the matchday (1.43) actually belonged to Brighton's game against Brentford FC (1.84 difference), offering even more statistical dominance, but dramatically speaking, Old Trafford remains the story of the day: a match that shows just how much football is simply chaos with a scoreline attached.

Lucky Devil of the Matchday

No fewer than three teams share the title of the day's luckiest side with a delta of +2: Liverpool FC, AFC Bournemouth, and Sunderland AFC. The Liverpool case is particularly spicy: the Reds won 3-1 at Crystal Palace, even though the xG numbers (1.96 to 1.95) predicted a game of equals. Three points for an expected points value of just 1.0 – that's what you call efficient finishing, or simply: luck with a system. Sunderland AFC, meanwhile, beat Chelsea FC 1-0, even though the visitors were technically the more mature side by xG (1.31 to 0.83). The Stadium of Light clearly had the home side's back that afternoon.

xG Victim

On the other side of the misfortune ledger stands, of all teams, the season's biggest crash candidate: Manchester United. With a matchday delta of -1.5 and a season-long total difference of a staggering -10, United are the sorry kings of football statistics. A team that should be sitting on 18 points by xP is scraping by with just eight in the real table. Right behind them come Coventry City and Tottenham Hotspur, each at -1 – both went away empty-handed despite xP values (1.0 each) that promised at least a share of the spoils. Tottenham Hotspur, with a season-long total difference of -5, thus remain the sorrowful permanent guest of the unlucky-souls club.

The Honest Table Standings

Anyone looking at the official table sees Arsenal FC comfortably at the top. Anyone looking at the xP table sees the Gunners sitting only sixth – with a difference of +11.5 points, by far the biggest "luck advantage" in the league. On the flip side, Manchester United provide the textbook example of collective misfortune: officially 18th, they'd be third by xP. Nottingham Forest (officially 16th, 5th by xP) and Tottenham Hotspur (officially 11th, 4th by xP) also have every right to wonder just how many points are still missing in this universe. Meanwhile, the true winners of chance conversion sit right at the top of the xP table: Brighton & Hove Albion and Manchester City lead there with 18.5 expected points each – sober, efficient, and completely overshadowed in the media by Arsenal's points party.

Outlook

The big question for the next matchday: how much longer can Arsenal's lucky streak last? With an xP difference of +11.5, a correction is due sooner or later – the only question is at whose expense. For Manchester United, meanwhile, the brutal waste of chances will eventually have to translate into real results, or else English football weeks full of gallows humour await. And Tottenham Hotspur, as well as Nottingham Forest, might secretly be wondering when the football gods will finally stop by and settle the bill they've owed them for weeks now.