As if Fortune Were Blind During the Penalty Shootout – Matchday 12 of the Premier League

A matchday straight out of football's irony textbook: While some teams stand empty-handed despite dominant performances, others hoover up points with the efficiency of a vacuum cleaner. The 12th matchday of the Premier League was a feast for all statistics lovers and simultaneously a nightmare for anyone who believes in justice in football. Three teams could celebrate 2.5 undeserved points each – a luxury that normally only the luckiest of teams can afford.

Game of the Week: Bournemouth vs. West Ham – When finishing becomes a foreign concept

The Vitality Stadium became the scene of probably the most frustrating 2:2 of the season – at least from AFC Bournemouth's perspective. With an xG value of 3.18 against a measly 0.57, the hosts should have secured a clear victory. Instead, it was only enough for a draw against West Ham United, whose goalkeeper must have signed an exclusive contract with the god of luck.

The discrepancy of 2.61 xG in Bournemouth's favour is proof that football is sometimes like a bad joke: You've understood the joke, but nobody's laughing anyway. AFC Bournemouth must be wondering what else they need to do to convert their chances – perhaps a visit to a fortune teller or a new lucky charm might help.

Lucky Winner of the Matchday: Triple Jackpot in a Rush of Fortune

Three teams can celebrate themselves as joint winners of the lucky streak: Everton FC, Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest each collected 3 points, although their Expected Points stood at a meager 0.5. That's like winning three different main prizes with a single lottery ticket.

Everton FC showed probably the most brazen performance: With an xG of only 0.49, they won 1:0 at Manchester United – and that despite a chances ratio of 2.65:0.49 in favour of the hosts. That's efficiency on a level that would make even German engineers jealous.

xG Victims: The Hard-Luck Trilogy from Manchester

Manchester seems to be cursed – albeit in different colours. Three teams each collected 2.5 undeserved minus points: Manchester United, Manchester City and Liverpool FC. All three dominated their games statistically but still left the pitch as losers.

Particularly bitter for Manchester United: To produce an xG value of 2.65 against Everton's 0.49 at Old Trafford and still lose 1:0 is like becoming a millionaire at Monopoly and still going bankrupt. Liverpool FC experienced a similar tragedy at Anfield – 2.28 xG against Nottingham Forest's 1.73, but in the end a 3:0 stood on the scoreboard. Sometimes football is just cruel.

Honest Table Position: Aston Villa – the Masters of Point Maximization

In the official table, Arsenal FC sits at the top with 61 points, followed by Manchester City (56). But the honest table tells a different story: Arsenal FC also leads here with 57.5 xP, but Manchester City lies significantly behind with only 47.5 xP – a difference of a whopping 8.5 points between reality and performance.

The true artists of point maximization, however, are Aston Villa: With 51 real points but only 34.5 xP, they've accumulated an incredible plus of 16.5 points. That's no longer efficiency, that's magic. At the other end of the table, Wolverhampton Wanderers suffers from the reverse phenomenon: 10 points in reality but 28 xP – a minus of 18 points. The Wolves are living proof that good performance isn't automatically rewarded.

Outlook: The Wheel of Fortune Keeps Spinning

After such a matchday, the question arises: Who will draw the lucky ticket next time? The mathematical laws of probability suggest that the pendulum will swing back. Manchester United, Manchester City and Liverpool FC should hope for better times, while Everton, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest should wrap up warm – luck is a fickle companion.

It will be particularly exciting for Aston Villa: Can they continue their fairy-tale season or will reality catch up with them? And Wolverhampton Wanderers face the question of all questions: When will their dominant performance finally be converted into points? Football remains unpredictable – and that's a good thing too.