Matchday 17: When xG Karma Struck Back

The 17th Premier League matchday was a true feast for all friends of honest statistics

Sometimes football is like life: unfair, unpredictable and full of twists that even the best Expected Goals calculation can't predict. On the 17th matchday of the Premier League, we once again saw why the honest table exists – and why some teams will probably need a reality check soon.

Game of the Week: Villa Park becomes the Theatre of Dreams

Aston Villa vs. Manchester United (2:1) – What a spectacle at Villa Park! The Villans won 2-1, even though Manchester United had significantly better Expected Goals with 1.86 to 1.15. This is football in its purest form: Manchester United dominate for 90 minutes, Aston Villa ruthlessly capitalise on their few chances. With an xG discrepancy of 0.71 in favour of the Red Devils, this was the statistical heist of the matchday. But hey, goals don't fall because of Excel spreadsheets – they fall because someone puts the ball in the net.

Lucky Charm of the Matchday: Villa celebrate like lottery winners

Aston Villa rightfully earn the title "Lucky Charm of the 17th Matchday". With a measly 0.5 Expected Points, they should have left the pitch pointless – instead they celebrated three points. A delta of +2.5 points above their deserved total! That's like winning a penalty shootout despite your opponent having 20 shots on goal. But you need luck – and Villa have it in abundance right now.

The Villans' form curve is remarkable, by the way: in the official table they sit 3rd with 51 points, in the honest xP table they would only be 8th with 34.5 Expected Points. A difference of a whopping 16.5 points! That's not luck anymore, that's almost wizardry.

The xG Victim: Manchester United and the law of series

Manchester United is the perfect example of how good football isn't always rewarded. With 2.5 Expected Points, the Red Devils should have left Villa Park as winners – instead they drove home empty-handed. A delta of -2.5 points makes them the unlucky ones of the matchday.

Looking at the season as a whole, Manchester United are 3rd in the honest table with 43 Expected Points, while they officially "only" sit in 4th place. At least: with +5 points above their xP deserved total they can't complain – but this matchday was simply a setback at the wrong time.

The Honest Truth: Who stands where they belong?

A look at the honest table reveals interesting shifts: Arsenal lead both the official and the xP table – respect, that's a deserved top position. Manchester City in 2nd place in the official table would actually only deserve 2nd place with 47.5 xPoints, but benefit from 8.5 lucky points.

The biggest surprise? Wolverhampton Wanderers are the xG victims of the season par excellence! With only 10 points they sit in last place, but would deserve 17th place with 28 Expected Points. A delta of -18 points – that's almost tragic. Wolves play like a mid-table team but get punished like relegation candidates.

At the other end of the spectrum, Sunderland AFC sit in 12th place with +11.5 lucky points, although with 24.5 xPoints they actually belonged in 18th place. That's efficiency in its purest form – or simply outrageous luck.

Outlook: The bill comes at the end

With 21 matchdays still to go until the end of the season, we'll see who can justify their position in the honest table. Aston Villa won't get away with 16.5 lucky points forever – eventually xG karma catches up with everyone. Wolverhampton Wanderers, however, can hope their bad luck will turn soon – statistically speaking, they're overdue for an upturn.

Leeds United, by the way, stand with exactly zero difference between real and Expected Points – that's the most honest position in the league. Sometimes mediocrity is also an art.

The question remains: who will end up at the end of the season where they statistically belong? One thing is certain: the honest table never forgets – and xG karma never sleeps.