The Random Number Generator Gets Its Premier League Premiere

Hook Intro

Two matchdays played, and it's already clear: the table lies like a badly forged CV. Sitting pretty at the top is Arsenal FC with six points, despite deserving, according to Expected Points, a mere 3.5. Down at the bottom, Tottenham Hotspur are waiting for justice with zero points, even though the stats award them 3 xP. Welcome to reality, where football and fairness only occasionally meet for coffee.

Match of the Week

Manchester United against Ipswich Town looked like a gala on paper – 5-2, fireworks at Old Trafford. But glance at the xG figures (3.30 to 1.11) and it wasn't a surprise at all, just the logical consequence of a dominant side finally converting chances instead of squandering them. More intriguing is the case of Crystal Palace against Manchester City: 1-4 with an xG difference of 1.43 in the Skyblues' favour – business as usual in the football universe, where Manchester City continue to bend the laws of physics in their favour.

Lucky Devil of the Matchday

Newcastle United and Hull City share the golden horseshoe of this matchday, both with a delta of +2.5. Newcastle won at Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 – with an xG of 1.09 against 1.98. That's like winning the jackpot with two correct numbers on the lottery. Hull City, meanwhile, beat Coventry City 1-0, even though the xG figures (0.72 to 1.30) clearly favoured the hosts. After two matchdays, Hull sit on six points and an official table position of 3 – the xP table, however, has them down in 19th. This isn't a promoted-team fairytale, it's an overperformance masterpiece.

Arsenal FC also belong among the lucky ones with a delta of +2: their 1-0 win at Aston Villa was decided by the slimmest of margins in xG terms (a gap of just 0.24) – yet top spot still feels very comfortable indeed.

xG Victims

On the other end of the luck scale waits a duo of frustration and misfortune: Coventry City and Tottenham Hotspur share the wooden spoon of injustice with a delta of -2.5. Tottenham racked up an xG of 1.98 against Newcastle United – more than the whole match should have been worth – and still sit on zero points. Coventry City, too, left the pitch as statistical winners against Hull City (1.30 to 0.72 xG), only to lose 0-1. Both clubs are entitled to wonder whether the football gods had the day off.

Liverpool FC must also join this club: their 2-2 draw against Nottingham Forest, with an xG of 1.68 to 1.17, should really have been a win. With just 2 points from a possible 5 xP, Liverpool FC are the big losers of the honest reckoning.

The Honest Table

A look at the xP table reveals a completely different ranking. Manchester City deservedly lead there with 5 xP – in the official table, the club sits "only" in 2nd. Brentford FC, Manchester United and Liverpool FC share 2nd through 4th in the honest table, also with 5 xP, while officially languishing in positions 5, 10 and 13 – three teams who convince on the pitch but get punished in the standings.

Right at the bottom of the xP table: Hull City and Newcastle United, both with just 1 xP – yet living well beyond their means with six and four real points respectively. The official table shows glamour, the xP table shows substance. Or the lack thereof.

Outlook

The big question for the next matchday: when will regression to the mean strike? Teams like Hull City and Newcastle United can't keep collecting points forever on a diet of scarce chances, while Liverpool FC and Manchester United will eventually need to start translating their xG superiority into results. Tottenham Hotspur and Coventry City, meanwhile, should soon be rewarded for their good performances – at least if the football gods have a heart. The honest table will show it. The official table will probably keep ignoring it.