When Luck Reigns: The Crazy 23rd Matchday of the Premier League

A Weekend of Great Contradictions

The 23rd matchday of the Premier League was a perfect example of why we at ehrlichetabelle.com exist at all. While some pocketed three points with a wink from fate that they never deserved according to Expected Goals, others went empty-handed despite superior performances. Particularly bitter: The league's biggest names became playthings of luck.

Match of the Week: Old Trafford Becomes Theater of the Absurd

At the Emirates Stadium on matchday 23, probably the season's most brazen game of chance unfolded. Manchester United won at FC Arsenal 3-2 – and this despite the Gunners posting a significantly better xG balance of 1.67 to 0.98. A difference of 0.69 in favor of the hosts, who still ended up as losers.

It was a masterclass in how football sometimes mocks its own logic. FC Arsenal dominated for long stretches, created the better chances, and should have been rewarded with 2.5 points according to Expected Goals. Instead, United collected three lucky points and left the North Londoners with zero. The fact that United currently sits in 4th place, even though they would also land in this position in the honest xP table, makes the whole thing even more cynical – they simply didn't need this victory.

Lucky Devil of the Matchday: Manchester United Dances on the Volcano

With a delta of +2.5 points, the Red Devils were the big winners of the luck roulette. While they deserved only 0.5 points according to Expected Points, three points wandered into their account. That's efficiency on a level that makes every xG statistic weep.

United was closely followed by Nottingham Forest and FC Chelsea, both of whom collected 2 points more than their performance warranted. Nottingham Forest beat Brentford FC 2-0, even though the Bees had better Expected Goals with 1.32 to 0.85. FC Chelsea also benefited from a positive xG balance for their hosts during their 3-1 victory over Crystal Palace (1.67 to 1.32).

xG Victims: Arsenal Pays the Bitter Price of Honesty

The irony of fate: Of all teams, FC Arsenal, who lead both the official and honest tables, became the biggest unlucky team of the matchday. With a -2.5 point difference between reality and Expected Points, the Gunners experienced a nightmare in their own Emirates Stadium.

Tottenham Hotspur also had reason to grumble. In their 2-2 draw at Burnley, Spurs should have left the pitch as clear winners according to xG (2.3 to 1.08). Instead, it was only enough for one point – 1.5 points less than deserved.

Honest Table Situation: The Great Swindlers Are Exposed

In the official table, FC Arsenal leads comfortably with 61 points ahead of Manchester City (56). But the honest xP table reveals interesting shifts: The Gunners would lead here too, but only with 57.5 expected points – their lead is therefore justified, albeit not quite as comfortable.

The season's true lucky charm remains Aston Villa. With 51 points they sit in 3rd place, but would only deserve 34.5 points according to xP – a delta of incredible +16.5 points! In the honest table, they would only be in 8th place.

At the other end of the scale, the Wolverhampton Wanderers suffer under the league's greatest misfortune. With only 10 points they are bottom of the table, even though they would have deserved 28 points according to Expected Points. A delta of -18 points – that's almost tragic.

Newcastle United (-5.5) and Nottingham Forest (-7.5) are other prominent representatives of the unlucky faction, while Brentford FC (+10) and Sunderland AFC (+11.5) belong to the big beneficiaries.

Outlook: Luck Is a Fickle Bird

After 23 of 38 matchdays, the season is far from decided, but the tendencies are becoming clearer. FC Arsenal shows that you can stand at the top even without great luck – their lead in both tables is a sign of genuine class.

It will be exciting to see whether Aston Villa can preserve their luck until the end of the season, or whether the xG gods will eventually present their bill. For the Wolverhampton Wanderers, however, things can really only get better – or as they say: After the rain comes the sun.

The next matchday will show whether the pendulum swings back or whether some teams are simply kissed by luck. In the Premier League, one thing is certain: It's never boring.