When Crystal Palaces Walk on Water and Fulham Drowns in Its Own Living Room

Hook Intro

Premier League number three has found itself a motto: whoever shoots doesn't necessarily win, whoever wants it just wins. Ten games, ten little lies that add up to the table we all know and love – and which still has about as much to do with reality as a wish list does with a bank balance. Welcome back to the weekly reckoning.

Match of the Week

Craven Cottage is supposed to be Fulham's living room, but Fulham FC locked themselves out of it. They racked up 2.59 xG against Crystal Palace – more than any other home side this matchday – and still ended up empty-handed. Crystal Palace FC won 3:2 despite statistically managing only 1.15 xG. An xG difference of 1.44 speaks volumes: this wasn't a football match, this was a daylight robbery.

Lucky Devil of the Matchday

Crystal Palace FC is the king of the week, no question about it. Three points from an expected value of just 0.5 xP – a delta of +2.5 makes the Eagles the undisputed lottery winners. But Liverpool FC should also light a candle: a 2:0 win at Ipswich with nearly even xG values (1.50 to 1.47) brought a full three points instead of the one they actually deserved. And even Arsenal FC, top of the table on points, treated themselves to a little extra fortune in their 2:1 win over Chelsea. The autumn sun, it seems, doesn't shine equally on everyone.

xG Victim

We already mentioned Fulham FC above, but it's worth pointing at them again: 2.5 expected points, zero actual ones. That's not a rough patch, that's a Greek tragedy in football boots. Craven Cottage, home of the club since 1879, functioned this weekend more like a cursed ground. AFC Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion also join the ranks of the hard done by, each at -1.5 – Brighton produced a hefty 2.13 xG against Leeds United at the American Express Community Stadium but only managed a weary draw.

The Honest Table

The official table celebrates Arsenal and Manchester City together at the top with 9 points each – but honestly, Manchester City would be clearly ahead here, with 7.5 xP against Arsenal's 6. The real shock, though, sits further down: Hull City, officially third with 7 points, would plummet to 17th in the xP table – a difference of a whopping 5 points. Newcastle United (diff +3.5) and Chelsea FC (+3.5) are also currently living beyond their statistical means. On the other side of the ledger stand the northern equivalent of Servette, Brighton & Hove Albion, along with Brentford FC and Liverpool FC, all boasting a healthy 6 xP but only 4 or 5 actual points respectively – three teams that really ought to be sitting higher than the table shows. And then there's Fulham FC: bottom of the table with 0 points, but xP-wise comfortably parked in the safety of mid-table with 4.5 points.

Outlook

If the football gods have even a shred of justice in them, it's high time for the tide to turn for Fulham FC – nobody can afford this much bad luck forever. Hull City, meanwhile, should brace themselves: whoever collects seven points from 2 xP is sooner or later going to feel the pull of statistical gravity. And Manchester City? The Citizens from the Etihad Stadium are already playing the most convincing season in the league – the table just hasn't quite caught up yet. This time, the truth wears sky blue instead of red, even though both sit at the top. We'll keep watching.