Manchester Derby of Emotions: When Fortune Meets Misfortune

Matchday 4 of the Premier League had everything once again: A derby that leaves statisticians scratching their heads, a goalkeeper stealing points, and teams slowly but surely showing their true colors. While some clubs continue surfing the wave of luck, others are being caught up by the merciless reality of Expected Points.

Match of the Week: Manchester Derby at the Etihad Stadium

The Manchester Derby between Manchester City and Manchester United ended with a clear 3-0 for the hosts – but the xG values tell a completely different story. With just 1.49 to 1.37 Expected Goals, the match could just as easily have ended 1-1. Instead, Manchester City served up a masterpiece of efficiency at the Etihad Stadium.

While Manchester United was statistically almost as dangerous as the hosts over 90 minutes, they remained goalless. Manchester City, however, turned practically every hint of a chance into gold. A prime example of why football can sometimes be cruelly beautiful and beautifully cruel at the same time.

Lucky Charms of the Matchday: Manchester City and Fulham FC

Speaking of efficiency: Manchester City can celebrate not only three derby points but also the title of "Lucky Charm of the Matchday." With only 1.0 Expected Points, they statistically deserved at most one point – instead they took all three. Delta: +2.0 points.

Fulham FC pocketed the same luck bonus at Craven Cottage. They beat Leeds United 1-0, even though the visitors posed more danger with 1.17 xG than the hosts (0.87 xG). Sometimes all it takes is one lucky strike and a goalkeeper in world-class form.

xG Victims: The Triumvirate of Hard Luck Stories

Three teams share the inglorious title of biggest hard luck story: Everton FC, Crystal Palace and Chelsea FC all received 1.5 Expected Points less than they statistically deserved.

Everton FC had posed significantly more danger at Goodison Park against Aston Villa with 1.88 xG compared to the visitors' 0.76 xG, but had to settle for a 0-0. Crystal Palace suffered similarly at Selhurst Park: Despite clear xG superiority against Sunderland AFC (1.64 to 0.67), it remained goalless.

Chelsea FC completes the trio of unlucky ravens. Against Brentford FC they only managed a 2-2 despite 1.84 xG compared to just 0.99 xG from the hosts. Three teams, one fate: too many chances, too little yield.

Honest League Table: The Truth Behind the Points

A look at the honest table reveals who is currently performing above or below their true value. Aston Villa leads the list of lucky charms: With 51 points they sit in 3rd place, although their Expected Points of just 34.5 would correspond more to 8th place. A difference of an incredible 16.5 points!

Manchester City (8.5 points too many) and Sunderland AFC (11.5 points too many) are also living well above their xP means.

On the other side, Wolverhampton Wanderers stand as the season's great xG victim: With only 10 points they're languishing in 20th place, although their 28 Expected Points would actually mean 17th place. An 18-point difference – enough to make you lose faith in the football gods.

Particularly bitter: Newcastle United (-5.5 points) and Nottingham Forest (-7.5 points) also belong to the season's great hard luck stories.

Outlook: Fortune is a Fickle Bird

The truth is: Over 38 matchdays, such discrepancies usually even out. Teams like Aston Villa will sooner or later be caught up by xG reality, while Wolverhampton Wanderers can hope their statistical advantage will soon turn into real points.

Manchester City won't play the entire season with 300 percent efficiency, and Chelsea FC won't permanently waste their chances. Matchday 5 will show whether the first corrections are emerging or whether the fortune-misfortune carousel continues spinning merrily.

One thing is certain: In the Premier League, everything is still possible – even if the Expected Goals are already telling their own story.