Matchday 6: When Football Gods Roll the Dice

The Day of Great Injustices

What a crazy Saturday in the Premier League! On Matchday 6, someone in football heaven seemed to be giving the wheels of fortune a proper spin. While some are toasting with champagne despite only deserving water, others are left empty-handed – despite performances that would normally be worth three points. Welcome to the great lottery of English football, where Expected Goals are just a nice statistic and the goal has the final word.

Match of the Week: Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland AFC

The most extreme example of footballing injustice this matchday occurred at The City Ground. Nottingham Forest dominated Sunderland AFC by every rule in the book, hammered the leather towards goal with an xG value of 2.48 – and still lost 1-0. The visitors from the northeast needed just 1.11 expected goals and still took all three points back home.

This is football in its purest form: sometimes as illogical as a tax bill, but just as unchangeable. Nottingham Forest could have played this match ten times – nine times they would have won. Unfortunately, only the one time that actually happened counts.

Lucky Charm of the Matchday: Sunderland AFC

Let's talk about the biggest lucky charm of the matchday: Sunderland AFC picked up a whopping 2.5 luck points – the difference between their deserved 0.5 Expected Points and the actual three they collected. Mathematically speaking, that's about as likely as scoring from your own half – can happen, but you shouldn't bet on it.

Sunderland AFC now sit in 12th place in the official table, while they would only occupy 18th place in the honest xP table. With 11.5 luck points across the entire season, they're currently the team living most beyond their means. But hey, as long as it works!

xG Victim: Nottingham Forest

On the other side of the luck spectrum sits poor Nottingham Forest. With -2.5 points on the matchday, they're the biggest xG victim of the weekend. Looking at the entire season, they stand there with -7.5 points like the classic unlucky charm: great performance, terrible result.

In a fair world, the Forests would be sitting in 9th place in the honest table instead of languishing in a dismal 17th position. Sometimes football is just like life: unfair, but still beautiful. Or something like that.

Honest League Table: The Big Pretenders and True Masters

The Premier League table currently reads like a who's who of fortune hunters. FC Arsenal lead both the official and honest tables – chapeau, that's deserved performance! Manchester City in 2nd place, however, have swindled themselves 8.5 luck points and should only be second in the xP world (which they are anyway, but with less of a lead).

The absolute showstopper is Aston Villa: 3rd officially, but only 8th in the honest table. With 16.5 luck points, they're currently living as far beyond their means as a lottery millionaire in their first year. At the other end, the tragedy of Wolverhampton Wanderers: 20th in the table with only 10 points, when they would actually be a solid mid-table team with 28 Expected Points. Sometimes football really is enough to make you cry.

Outlook: Regression to the Mean

Football mathematics is merciless: what's too good to be true usually isn't. Teams like Aston Villa or Sunderland AFC will sooner or later lose their lucky streak, while Nottingham Forest and Wolverhampton Wanderers can hope for better times.

The next matchday will show whether luck redistributes itself or if current trends continue. One thing is certain: in a league where Expected Goals and actual results are as far apart as expectations and reality at a Monday morning meeting, it remains exciting. Very exciting indeed.

*The honest table shows: football may be unpredictable, but it's not illogical. Sometimes you just have to look a bit more closely.*