The London Fog Trick: Three Goals Out of Nowhere, a Forest Full of Bad Luck

Hook-Intro

Sometimes a single matchday is enough to show that football isn't a maths lesson – even if the xG table would love it to be. Arsenal win with an xG value that barely covers a corner kick, Aston Villa steal three points off a side that thoroughly outplayed them, and Nottingham Forest are left empty-handed despite a gutsy performance. Welcome to Matchday 7 of the Premier League, where reality and the "honest" table once again tell completely different stories.

Game of the Week

The biggest xG discrepancy of the weekend comes, fittingly, from a match without any fireworks: AFC Bournemouth beat Sunderland AFC 2:0, but the xG numbers (2.82 to 0.45) tell the story of a proper demolition job at the Vitality Stadium. Sunderland should be grateful it wasn't worse – conceding only two goals against that kind of chance superiority is almost a win in itself.

Equally eye-catching: Brighton & Hove Albion took apart Crystal Palace 5:0 at the American Express Community Stadium, with an xG of 2.05 to 0.54. The Seagulls thus underline impressively why they sit at the top of the honest table – more on that shortly.

Lucky Charm of the Matchday

Two teams share the throne of fortune this week: Arsenal FC and Aston Villa. Both picked up maximum points (3) despite expected points of a measly 1.0 each – a delta of +2.0. Arsenal edged past Nottingham Forest 1:0 with an xG difference of just 0.03. That wasn't a footballing thriller, that was a coin flip in a kit. Aston Villa, meanwhile, won 1:0 at Newcastle United even though the Magpies held the slightly better cards on xG (1.60 to 1.45). Tottenham Hotspur round out the trio of the fortunate with a delta of +0.5 – a win over Coventry City that at least looked reasonably deserved.

xG Victims

On the flip side of the coin: Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, and Everton FC – all three came away empty-handed despite the numbers suggesting they deserved at least a point. Nottingham Forest are hit hardest, with a season delta of -6.0 making them the unluckiest side in the entire league. The City Ground apparently has a season pass to miserable afternoons this year. Everton FC (0 points from 0.5 expected points against Chelsea) and Newcastle United (0 from 1.0 against Aston Villa) also have every right to feel hard done by.

The Honest Table Standings

Anyone just glancing at the official table sees Manchester City sitting pretty on 21 points – according to xPoints (12.5) that would still only be good for 2nd place, but an 8.5-point gap over their actual underlying performance is still remarkable. The true number one of the league, according to xPoints, is Brighton & Hove Albion (14.5), who sit "only" 3rd in the official table – a team that consistently impresses but is rarely rewarded for it.

Things get truly painful for Manchester United: officially just 13th with 7 points, but 3rd by xPoints with 12.5 – a delta of -5.5. The Red Devils are playing considerably better than the table suggests. Tottenham Hotspur, AFC Bournemouth, and yes, Nottingham Forest find themselves in a similar boat, all sitting on xPoints of 11.0 that should put them in the upper third of the table, yet reality has them languishing well below that.

On the winning side of honesty: Arsenal FC (2nd officially, 8th by xP) and Manchester City show that topping the table and controlling matches don't always go hand in hand – though both teams are of course entitled to celebrate their wins regardless.

The biggest mover upward, by the way, is Leeds United with a delta of +4.0 – the Yorkshiremen are overperforming their xP numbers and can be pleased with themselves, while Nottingham Forest remain the table's biggest loser (-6.0), still waiting for their just rewards.

Outlook

At the latest by next matchday, the stats should start fighting back. Teams like Nottingham Forest, Newcastle United, or AFC Bournemouth, who are consistently outperforming their results, stand a good chance of finally seeing that reflected in the real table soon – the football gods do love balancing the books eventually. Conversely, Arsenal FC and Aston Villa should brace themselves: teams that win three points with an xG under 1.2 rarely get that lucky twice in a row. The honest table waits patiently – and it has a long memory.