Matchday 8: The Premier League Lottery Jackpot

That was another hair-pulling Premier League weekend – at least if you look at Expected Goals. While the football gods were playing dice, three teams each collected 2.5 xP and still came away empty-handed. Welcome to the craziest league in the world.

Game of the Week: Burnley FC beats football with mathematics

At Turf Moor on Matchday 8, a statistical miracle occurred that left even hardened xG experts speechless. Burnley FC defeated Leeds United 2-0 – with an Expected Goals ratio of 0.63 to 2.23. With an xG differential of a whopping 1.6 in favor of the visitors, this was the craziest result of the weekend.

Leeds United should have deserved the three points based on their performance, instead they sit with 31 points in 15th place – exactly where they would also stand in the honest table. Sometimes football is fair after all. Burnley FC, meanwhile, continues to desperately collect points in their relegation battle, even if the manner feels more like lottery luck than sustainable football.

Lucky charm of the matchday: The triple fortune

Three teams share the title "Lucky charm of the matchday": Manchester United, Burnley FC and Sunderland AFC all collected three points despite only deserving 0.5 points according to Expected Points. The delta of 2.5 points each is remarkable.

Manchester United turned the game around at Anfield against Liverpool FC despite significantly worse xG values (1.25 to 2.14) and won 2-1. The Red Devils now have 5 more points on their account than their performance would actually warrant – but hey, wins count more than pretty statistics, as we all know.

Sunderland AFC also benefited from the football lottery and beat Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0, even though Wolves had the better chances with 1.79 to 1.05 xG. With 11.5 points above their Expected Points performance, the Black Cats are the secret lottery kings of the season.

xG victims: When bad luck becomes a permanent state

Three teams must share the title "unlucky team of the matchday": Wolverhampton Wanderers, Leeds United and Liverpool FC all came away empty-handed despite 2.5 Expected Points.

Wolves are the most tragic example of football's unfairness: With only 10 points, they sit in last place, even though with 28 Expected Points they should actually be in 17th place. A delta of -18 points is almost grotesque – Wolves are the xG victim par excellence this season.

Liverpool FC had an off day at Anfield and lost despite clearly better chance conversion against Manchester United. With only a 2-point difference between the real and honest table, the Reds are among the fairest teams in the league.

Honest league position: Villa living in fairyland

While Arsenal FC leads both the official and xP table, a second look reveals some spicy details. Aston Villa currently sits in 3rd place with 51 points – but would only be in 8th place in the honest table with 34.5 Expected Points. A plus of 16.5 points is remarkable even by Premier League standards.

Conversely, Wolverhampton Wanderers (-18 points) and Nottingham Forest (-7.5 points) particularly suffer from xG injustice. Forest currently sits in 17th place but according to Expected Points belongs in 9th – a dramatic difference in the fight for survival.

Brentford FC has established itself as a real lucky team (+10 points difference) and sits in 7th place, while honestly speaking they should be more like 15th. But as they say: even lucky points count.

Outlook: Regression is already waiting

On Matchday 9, it will be exciting to see whether the xG injustice continues or whether the statistical pendulum swings back. Especially Wolverhampton Wanderers are overdue for positive results – with 28 Expected Points and only 10 real points, it can only get better.

Aston Villa, however, should start getting nervous: being 16.5 points above expected performance is not sustainable in the long run. Eventually, statistics catch up with everyone – even in the crazy Premier League.