When Mainz Becomes a Mere Extra and Dortmund Puts the Competition to Shame

Matchweek 45 in football has plenty in store: five leagues, almost 40 fixtures, and this time the xG data paints a remarkably clear picture. Bundesliga, Premier League, Serie A, La Liga and the Swiss Super League serve up a mix of nailed-on wins that really should go to plan, plus a handful of matches where the numbers quietly whisper "hold on a second." Buckle up – let's run through the highlights.

Top Picks (cross-league)

Roma against Sassuolo is by far the clearest case of the weekend. An 87 percent home win probability, 4.6 expected goals for the Romans against just 1.3 for the visitors – that's not a prediction, that's a statement of intent. Roma arrive in strong form (2.2 avgXP) and look set to simply run Sassuolo over.

```prediction {"home":"Roma","away":"Sassuolo","homeTeamId":113,"awayTeamId":469,"homeLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/italy-as-roma.png","awayLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/italy-us-sassuolo-calcio.png","homeWin":87,"draw":8,"awayWin":6,"xgHome":4.6,"xgAway":1.3,"confidence":"high","league":"Serie A","leagueId":"serie-a","fixtureId":8545210,"date":"2026-11-07T19:45:00.000Z"} ```

Almost as clear-cut: Borussia Dortmund against Elversberg. 85 percent home win, 2.9 to 0.6 expected goals. Elversberg show up with a measly form of 0.6 avgXP – smells like a cozy afternoon at Signal Iduna Park.

```prediction {"home":"Borussia Dortmund","away":"Elversberg","homeTeamId":33,"awayTeamId":6326,"homeLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/germany-bvb-09-borussia-dortmund.png","awayLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/germany-sv-07-elversberg.png","homeWin":85,"draw":11,"awayWin":5,"xgHome":2.9,"xgAway":0.6,"confidence":"high","league":"Bundesliga","leagueId":"bundesliga","fixtureId":8572565,"date":"2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z"} ```

Then there's Mainz against Bayern München. The hosts do have decent form (1.9 avgXP), but against Bayern's projected 4.5 expected goals that won't count for much. 80 percent away win – the data is convinced nothing will go wrong here.

```prediction {"home":"Mainz 05","away":"Bayern München","homeTeamId":34,"awayTeamId":38,"homeLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/germany-1-fsv-mainz-05.png","awayLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/germany-fc-bayern-munchen.png","homeWin":10,"draw":10,"awayWin":80,"xgHome":1.8,"xgAway":4.5,"confidence":"high","league":"Bundesliga","leagueId":"bundesliga","fixtureId":8572534,"date":"2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z"} ```

The Premier League also delivers a classic "no chance" case: Crystal Palace against Liverpool. Just 1.0 expected goals for Palace, a hefty 3.0 for the Reds, 76 percent away win probability. Liverpool's form curve of 1.6 avgXP against Palace's modest 0.8 does the rest.

```prediction {"home":"Crystal Palace","away":"Liverpool","homeTeamId":143,"awayTeamId":151,"homeLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/england-crystal-palace-fc.png","awayLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/england-liverpool-fc.png","homeWin":10,"draw":14,"awayWin":76,"xgHome":1,"xgAway":3,"confidence":"high","league":"Premier League","leagueId":"premier-league","fixtureId":8558057,"date":"2026-11-08T14:00:00.000Z"} ```

And last but not least: Servette against Zürich in the Super League. 71 percent home win, 3.2 to 1.3 expected goals – Servette are in strong form (2.1 avgXP) and look unlikely to give Zürich (0.8 avgXP) any breathing room.

```prediction {"home":"Servette","away":"Zürich","homeTeamId":898,"awayTeamId":896,"homeLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/switzerland-servette-fc.png","awayLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/switzerland-fc-zurich.png","homeWin":71,"draw":19,"awayWin":10,"xgHome":3.2,"xgAway":1.3,"confidence":"high","league":"Super League","leagueId":"swiss-super-league","fixtureId":8554499,"date":"2026-11-08T15:30:00.000Z"} ```

Bundesliga: Dortmund on a High, Köln-Leverkusen as the Tiebreaker

```prediction {"home":"Köln","away":"Bayer Leverkusen","homeTeamId":41,"awayTeamId":40,"homeLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/germany-1-fc-koln.png","awayLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/germany-bayer-04-leverkusen.png","homeWin":43,"draw":23,"awayWin":34,"xgHome":2.7,"xgAway":2.4,"confidence":"medium","league":"Bundesliga","leagueId":"bundesliga","fixtureId":8572478,"date":"2026-11-08T14:30:00.000Z"} ```

Besides the BVB stroll against Elversberg and Bayern's away trip to Mainz, it's worth looking at Köln against Bayer Leverkusen: with 2.7 to 2.4 expected goals and only 43 to 34 percent in favor of the hosts, this is a real coin-flip of a match. Hamburger SV against Borussia Mönchengladbach also promises offensive fireworks with 2.5 to 2.8 expected goals – Gladbach are slightly favored here.

```prediction {"home":"Hamburger SV","away":"Borussia M'gladbach","homeTeamId":36,"awayTeamId":39,"homeLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/germany-hamburger-sv.png","awayLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/germany-borussia-vfl-monchengladbach.png","homeWin":36,"draw":18,"awayWin":46,"xgHome":2.5,"xgAway":2.8,"confidence":"medium","league":"Bundesliga","leagueId":"bundesliga","fixtureId":8572464,"date":"2026-11-06T19:30:00.000Z"} ```

Premier League: ManCity May Stumble, Arsenal Rolls On

```prediction {"home":"Arsenal","away":"Hull City","homeTeamId":59,"awayTeamId":150,"homeLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/england-arsenal-fc.png","awayLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/england-hull-city-afc.png","homeWin":61,"draw":30,"awayWin":9,"xgHome":1.5,"xgAway":0.5,"confidence":"high","league":"Premier League","leagueId":"premier-league","fixtureId":8558028,"date":"2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z"} ```

Nottingham Forest against Manchester City carries low confidence and only a 37 percent away win probability for the Citizens – a warning sign. Meanwhile Arsenal against Hull City marches on with relative safety at 61 percent and a comfortable xG lead (1.5 to 0.5). Everton against Coventry City also looks like a clear-cut case.

```prediction {"home":"Nottingham Forest","away":"Manchester City","homeTeamId":211,"awayTeamId":93,"homeLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/england-nottingham-forest-fc.png","awayLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/england-manchester-city-fc.png","homeWin":30,"draw":33,"awayWin":37,"xgHome":1.6,"xgAway":1.7,"confidence":"low","league":"Premier League","leagueId":"premier-league","fixtureId":8558016,"date":"2026-11-07T17:30:00.000Z"} ```

Serie A: Juve Step on the Gas, Everyone Else Feels Their Way

Fiorentina against Juventus shows a clear edge with a 64 percent away win and 3.2 expected goals for the Old Lady. Otherwise, uncertainty rules in Italy this week: Napoli against Lazio leans data-wise more toward a draw (28-36-36), and Monza against Atalanta as well as Genoa against AC Milan are genuine lottery tickets with low confidence.

```prediction {"home":"Fiorentina","away":"Juventus","homeTeamId":471,"awayTeamId":90,"homeLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/italy-acf-fiorentina.png","awayLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/italy-juventus-fc.png","homeWin":11,"draw":25,"awayWin":64,"xgHome":1.6,"xgAway":3.2,"confidence":"high","league":"Serie A","leagueId":"serie-a","fixtureId":8545027,"date":"2026-11-08T19:45:00.000Z"} ```

La Liga: Just a Small Appetizer

Spain only serves up one fixture to report on this week: Rayo Vallecano against Athletic Bilbao. With a 56 percent away win and 2.4 to 1.3 expected goals, the form clearly favors the Basques.

```prediction {"home":"Rayo Vallecano","away":"Athletic Club Bilbao","homeTeamId":291,"awayTeamId":285,"homeLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/spain-rayo-vallecano.png","awayLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/spain-athletic-club-bilbao.png","homeWin":15,"draw":29,"awayWin":56,"xgHome":1.3,"xgAway":2.4,"confidence":"high","league":"La Liga","leagueId":"la-liga","fixtureId":8570360,"date":"2026-12-09T19:00:00.000Z"} ```

Super League: Vaduz and Luzern as Doormats

Alongside Servette's gala performance against Zürich, Vaduz against Sion (59 percent away win, 3.0 expected goals for Sion) and Luzern against Young Boys (57 percent, 3.4 xG for YB) also receive clear predictions against the home sides.

```prediction {"home":"Vaduz","away":"Sion","homeTeamId":893,"awayTeamId":889,"homeLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/liechtenstein-fc-vaduz.png","awayLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/switzerland-fc-sion.png","homeWin":19,"draw":22,"awayWin":59,"xgHome":1.8,"xgAway":3,"confidence":"high","league":"Super League","leagueId":"swiss-super-league","fixtureId":8554521,"date":"2026-11-07T17:00:00.000Z"} ```

Possible Upset

The data points to two candidates for an underdog coup: Leeds United against Tottenham Hotspur sits at "low confidence" with nearly even expected goals of 1.2 to 1.2 – Spurs are only the faintest of favorites, and Leeds, with steadier form (0.8 avgXP), could strike here. Torino against Lecce also deserves a glance: Torino lead at 45 percent, but with identical form curves (0.6 avgXP each), everything's wide open – a point for Lecce wouldn't be a huge shock.

```prediction {"home":"Leeds United","away":"Tottenham Hotspur","homeTeamId":222,"awayTeamId":92,"homeLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/england-leeds-united-fc.png","awayLogo":"https://cdn.footystats.org/img/teams/england-tottenham-hotspur-fc.png","homeWin":35,"draw":33,"awayWin":32,"xgHome":1.2,"xgAway":1.2,"confidence":"low","league":"Premier League","leagueId":"premier-league","fixtureId":8558041,"date":"2026-11-07T12:30:00.000Z"} ```

Conclusion

The clearest message of the weekend: Roma, Dortmund, Liverpool and Bayern should deliver – the xG data speaks plainly there. Things get more exciting in Köln, Hamburg, and with Nottingham Forest against Manchester City – that's where theory could once again get overtaken by practice. Anyone eyeing an upset should keep Leeds against Tottenham warmed up.