Rome's Fireworks, Lecce's Lottery, and the Great Confusion in Boot-Land

A Matchday That Lies Through Its Teeth

The opening weekend of Serie A 2026/27 delivered exactly what football does best: telling stories that only marginally touch on the truth. Ten matches, ten results – and if you believe the official table, chance itself is already sitting on top. Time to rip off the mask and see who really earned what they got.

Match of the Week: Rome's Gala at the Olimpico

The clearest result of the matchday came courtesy of AS Roma against ACF Fiorentina. A 4:0 at the Stadio Olimpico, backed up by the xG numbers too (2.06 to 1.12) – for once, result and performance actually matched. Fiorentina, founded in 1926, head home with a debacle that leaves no room for excuses, whether you look at the scoreline or the underlying numbers. Chapeau to Roma, the only side of the matchday to deliver a result nearly identical to their xG difference – almost suspiciously honest on a weekend full of lottery tickets.

Lucky Devils of the Matchday: Atalanta and Lecce's Lottery Duet

Some wins are earned the hard way – others practically fall into your lap. Atalanta beat US Sassuolo 2:1, even though the xG numbers (1.60 to 2.27) pointed more towards a Sassuolo win. Three points from just 0.5 expected points – a delta of +2.5 that's quite something.

Right up there with Atalanta is US Lecce, who saw off Venezia 2:0 at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, even though the hosts actually had the better xG (2.14 to 1.32). Lecce, founded in 1908, can happily say thanks – to their finishing, to the goalkeeper, to whoever deserves it. Three points out of thin air – call it success with a little help from Lady Luck.

xG Victims: Venezia and Sassuolo, the Unlucky Souls of the Lagoon City and Emilia

On the flip side stands Venezia, who should have won at home (Stadio Pierluigi Penzo) and instead got sent packing with a 0:2. An xP value of 2.5 against zero actual points – that's pure bad luck, the biggest negative delta of the matchday.

Almost identical is the fate of Sassuolo, who played convincingly at Atalanta (xG 2.27) but left without a single point. Genoa also belong in this category: they lost 0:2 to SSC Napoli, even though the xG (1.13 to 1.55) suggested a much closer game. Three teams who are fully entitled to stamp their feet in frustration.

The Honest Table: Who's Sitting Too High, Who's Too Low

A glance at the official table already shows distorted proportions after just one matchday. US Lecce sit on 3 points in 3rd place – in the xP table, they slide down to 15th. Similarly with Atalanta: officially 9th, but honestly speaking only 16th.

The reverse hits Venezia and Sassuolo particularly hard: both officially languish at the bottom of the table (18th and 15th respectively), yet according to xP they deserve 6th and 5th place. The truth, it seems, often lies between the lines – or in this case, between the official table and the xP table.

At least at the very top there's agreement. AS Roma lead both the official and the xP table – a team whose success is down to their own performance, not fortune. Inter Milan, Juventus FC, and AC Milan also find themselves near the top of both tables – solid work rather than a lucky streak.

Outlook: Will the Truth Come to Light?

After just one matchday, it's pointless to talk about trends – but the patterns are already visible. Teams like Atalanta and Lecce will need to brace themselves if their opponents' finishing doesn't stay as sloppy as it was on opening weekend. Meanwhile, sides like Venezia and Sassuolo, who impressed on the pitch but came away empty-handed, can at least trust in their own game plan – the points will follow sooner or later, if the football gods show some mercy.

The second matchday will reveal whether AS Roma can confirm their exceptional form, or whether Serie A will soon slip back into its usual unpredictability. The honest table, in any case, will keep watching – matchday by matchday, lie by lie.