Milan Tears Itself Apart, and Lazio Plays in a Different Reality

Hook-Intro

There are matchdays when the table tells one story – and the xG table tells a completely different one, with different protagonists, a different arc of tension, and definitely a different ending. Matchday 10 of Serie A was one of those cases: in Milan, the favourite won despite the worse performance, in Rome a club sits top of the table while statistically wandering somewhere in no-man's-land, and three teams got to feel like lottery winners while three others could file a tax return for points lost. Welcome to the honest table.

Match of the Week

The Milan derby wasn't really a derby in terms of the numbers. AC Milan won 3-1 against Inter – despite an xG of a measly 0.88 against the Nerazzurri's strong 2.22. Inter played the better football, created the clearer chances, and still went home from the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza empty-handed. That's not bad luck, that's practically assault on your own fanbase. While Milan celebrated, the Inter dressing room was probably checking the calculator several times to see if there wasn't some mistake in there. There wasn't. Just one of those nights where the football gods were apparently Milan fans.

Lucky Devil of the Matchday

Three teams share the throne of fortune's favourites this time: Parma Calcio, Genoa CFC and – of course – AC Milan. All three picked up 3 points with an expected value of just 0.5 xP. A delta of +2.5 isn't luck, that's hitting the jackpot plus the bonus number. Particularly sweet and sour: Parma won 3-0 away at Atalanta, even though the Bergamo side racked up a hefty 2.42 xG against the visitors' mere 0.77 at the Gewiss Stadium. That's not football, that's efficiency as high art – or simply a day when every shot found the net.

xG Victims

On the other side of the luck coin stand Inter Milan, US Lecce and Atalanta – all with a delta of -2.5. Atalanta got hit especially hard: 2.42 xG, three goals conceded, zero points. The Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia must have witnessed a ghostly silence that evening, given how many big chances simply didn't go in. US Lecce lost at home at the Stadio Comunale Via del Mare despite 2.15 xG against Genoa's modest 1.35 – a match that, according to the numbers, should have been won.

The Honest Table

And now it gets really interesting. SS Lazio top the official table with 28 points – but the xP table sees the side from the Stadio Olimpico with just 15 expected points, a whopping 13 below their actual tally. That's no longer "a bit of luck", that's its own personal weather forecast. AS Roma (+5.5) and AC Milan (+6) also reside well above their xP values.

On the other side of reality: Inter Milan and Como 1907 share the lead of the honest table with 22 xP each – Como even with a delta of just +1, almost suspiciously earned. Juventus FC sit only 7th in the official table, but according to xP they'd be sitting 3rd – a club currently performing worse than it actually plays. But the saddest chapter is written by ACF Fiorentina: officially 16th with 8 points, by xP the team from the Stadio Artemio Franchi would comfortably sit 5th. A delta of -8.5 is the bitter top penalty across all of Serie A this matchday.

Outlook

The big question for Matchday 11: does the Lazio bubble keep holding stubbornly, or does the correction finally arrive? A 13-point gap to your own xP is hardly sustainable in the long run – sooner or later, statistics come knocking at the door of the Stadio Olimpico. Also intriguing: can Inter end their unlucky streak before the gap to the top becomes uncomfortable? And will Fiorentina keep their fans entertained while continuing to create chances but harvest no points? The honest table says: there's still plenty of reshuffling to come. Until then, the rule stands: don't just watch the goals – watch the numbers behind them.