Serie A, 11th Matchday: When Fortune Rolls Her Dice

The Matchday of the Impossible

What a crazy 11th matchday in Serie A! While some got to celebrate undeserved victories, others stared open-mouthed at the scoreboard wondering how 2.39 Expected Goals can turn into a 0:0. Welcome to football's wonderland, where mathematics meets reality – and sometimes fails spectacularly.

The Turin Derby of Missed Fortune

If there was a prize for the most frustrating match of the matchday, the Turin Derby between Juventus FC and Torino FC would win it by a landslide. The Old Lady created Expected Goals worth 2.39 – enough for two to three goals – while the Granata only managed a meager 0.90 xG. The result? A spectacular 0:0 that shows why football isn't a mathematics lesson. The xG difference of 1.49 in Juve's favor is a slap in the face to all probability calculators. Sometimes the football god is simply standing in goal – or the strikers have swapped their boots.

Sassuolo's Golden Dice

The absolute lucky charm of the 11th matchday was US Sassuolo, who pulled off a small miracle in Bergamo. With just 0.93 Expected Goals against Atalanta's 1.48, the Neroverdi won 3:0. The delta of 2.5 points between deserved and received points is astronomical. US Sassuolo proved at the Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia that sometimes three shots on goal are more effective than ten chances by the opposition. The gods of football must be Sassuolo fans – there's no other way to explain this result.

Atalanta: When the xG Account is Overdrawn

On the other side stands Atalanta, who go down in the annals as the biggest xG victim of the matchday. With 1.48 Expected Goals against just 0.93 for their guests, a clear home victory should have been on paper. Instead, the Bergamaschi left empty-handed – a delta of -2.5 points that hurts like a missed penalty in the 90th minute. Atalanta diligently collects xG points, but unfortunately you can't buy bread with them. In the honest table they would be standing much better, in reality they have to settle for 7th place.

The Honest Truth: Who Really Belongs Where

A look at the honest xP table reveals the true balance of power in Serie A. Inter Milan deservedly leads both tables, albeit with a luck cushion of 5 points. The big surprises: AC Milan stand 2nd in the official table but would only occupy 6th place according to xP – a luck delta of a whopping 14.5 points! SSC Napoli (10.5 points too many) and AS Roma (7 point bonus) are also living beyond their means.

The season's big unlucky ones remain AC Pisa (-11.5 points) and Hellas Verona FC (-10.5 points), who in a fair world would be standing much higher up. ACF Fiorentina (-9 points) can also sing a song about how it feels when probability works against you.

Preview: The Wheel of Fortune Keeps Spinning

After this crazy 11th matchday, the question arises: will the pendulum swing back? AC Milan and SSC Napoli should be getting nervous by now – their luck credit is melting away with each matchday. Atalanta, on the other hand, can hope that their accumulated xG points will eventually be converted into real goals. And Inter Milan? The Nerazzurri can relax – they also lead the honest table. Sometimes it's simply better to be good than to be lucky. Or even better: combine both.