Matchday Report Serie A – Matchday 13: When Lady Luck Goes Wild

A Matchday from Football's Fairy Tale Book

The 13th matchday of Serie A has proven that numbers sometimes only tell half the truth. While the Expected Goals were dreaming of elegant 2-0 victories, reality served up spectacular comebacks and bitter disappointments. A matchday where US Cremonese showed at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara how to inflict maximum damage with minimal quality – and Bologna FC had to learn that dominance without goals is just a pretty term from the tactical manual.

Game of the Week: Cremonese Turns the xG Tables

What a masterpiece US Cremonese pulled off in Bologna! With just 1.13 xG against Bologna FC's whopping 2.86, the visitors secured a 3-1 away victory that was statistically about as likely as winning the lottery. An xG discrepancy of 1.73 in favor of the hosts, yet the "wrong" players were celebrating in the end.

Bologna FC dominated the game by every rule in the book, created chance after chance – and got punished by life itself. Cremonese, on the other hand, converted their few opportunities with the cold-bloodedness of a professional hitman. Games like these are why Expected Goals tell the truth about performance, but goals still determine reality.

Lucky Devils of the Matchday: Cremonese and Lecce Share the Jackpot

Two teams can consider themselves absolute lucky devils today: US Cremonese and US Lecce both bagged 3 points despite only deserving 0.5 points according to Expected Points. A delta of +2.5 – that's almost brazen.

While Cremonese struck in Bologna as described, US Lecce won at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare against Torino FC 2-1, even though the visitors were significantly more dangerous with 1.62 xG compared to Lecce's mere 0.98. Sometimes football is simpler than we think: score goals when it matters and keep a clean sheet, even when you don't deserve it.

xG Victims: Bologna and Torino as the Week's Hard-Luck Cases

While Cremonese and Lecce are rubbing their hands with glee, there's gloom at Bologna and Torino. Both teams lost their matches despite deserving 2.5 points according to Expected Points – and instead came away empty-handed. A bitter delta of -2.5 for both sides.

Particularly painful for Bologna: being so clearly superior at their own Stadio Renato Dall'Ara and still losing hurts twice as much. Torino FC can at least console themselves that they put in a decent away performance – just without the corresponding reward.

Honest League Table: Milan and Napoli Living Beyond Their Means

Taking a look at the xP table reveals a different Serie A than the official standings suggest. While Inter Mailand sits comfortably at the top in both the real and honest tables, other teams are living dangerously beyond their means.

Leading the pack is AC Milan: 2nd place in the official table with 54 points, but only 6th in the xP ranking with a measly 39.5 Expected Points. A luxury deficit of 14.5 points! SSC Napoli (4th officially, 7th honestly) and US Sassuolo (9th officially, 19th honestly) should also start getting worried.

On the other end of the spectrum stands ACF Fiorentina as the season's biggest hard-luck story: 16th officially, but 10th in the honest table. With 33 Expected Points, they deserve 9 more points. AC Pisa and Hellas Verona are also standing much worse than their performances would justify.

Outlook: The Truth Catches Up with Everyone

Serie A is showing itself to be particularly moody this year – the discrepancies between real and Expected Points are considerable. But experience teaches us that over a full season, these differences usually balance out. Teams like Milan and Napoli should quickly improve their performances, or the fall could be hard. Fiorentina and Pisa, on the other hand, can hope that their consistently good performances finally get rewarded.

The next matchday will show whether today's lucky devils can maintain their form – or if xG justice strikes back. In Serie A, anything is possible, as this crazy 13th matchday has once again proven.