Serie A on Matchday 2: When Football Gods Play Dice

What a crazy start to the new Serie A season! On matchday 2, the beautiful game once again showed its most unpredictable side – and the xG statistics expose some teams as real lucky charms, while others are left wondering what they've done to upset the football gods.

Match of the Week: Inter Milan Suffers Statistical Trauma

At the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, something happened that keeps statisticians awake at night: Inter Milan dominated Udinese Calcio by all Expected Goals rules (1.76 to 1.18 xG) and still lost 2-1. An xG delta of 0.58 in favor of the Nerazzurri, but in the end the guests from Udine were celebrating.

That's how football works: one team creates the better chances, the other capitalizes ice-cold on their few opportunities. Udinese Calcio collected three points even though according to xG they only deserved 0.5 Expected Points – a perfect example of why we love and simultaneously curse this sport.

Lucky Charm of the Matchday: Udinese Calcio Hits the Jackpot

Speaking of fortune: Udinese Calcio is our winner of the luck lottery on matchday 2. With a delta of +2.5 points (3 actual points vs. 0.5 Expected Points), they've shown how to make a lot out of a little. Sometimes you don't need the prettiest combinations, just the right portion of timing and a pinch of Italian *malizia*.

But Juventus FC and Bologna FC can also be happy about two undeserved bonus points – both took three points even though according to xG they only deserved one Expected Point.

The xG Victim: When Inter Milan Cries, Fortune Laughs

Inter Milan is the tragic victim of the matchday. With a delta of -2.5 points, they went empty-handed despite a superior performance (2.5 Expected Points). That's the bitter-sweet irony of football: sometimes you play well and still lose. The Milanese can at least console themselves that the xG statistics reflect their true performance – even if that doesn't bring table positions.

US Sassuolo and Como 1907 also experienced the dark side of probability calculations and went empty-handed despite Expected Points.

The Honest Table: Who's Living Beyond Their Means?

The official table isn't lying as drastically as it will later in the season, but first tendencies are recognizable. AC Milan sits in 2nd place with 54 points, but according to xP would only have deserved 39.5 points – a whopping plus of 14.5 points! The Rossoneri are definitely living beyond their statistical means.

SSC Napoli (4th place with +10.5 lucky points) and US Sassuolo (9th place with +10 points) also benefit massively from fortune. On the other side, ACF Fiorentina is being brutally punished: 16th place with only 24 points, even though according to xP they would have deserved 33 points. A minus of 9 points – something is clearly going wrong in Florence.

Outlook: Regression Is Already Waiting

The xG statistics are like an oracle: they don't show what will happen, but what probably should happen. Teams like AC Milan and SSC Napoli should bundle up – such lucky streaks are rarely sustainable. ACF Fiorentina, however, can hope for better times: when performance is right, the points usually come too.

Inter Milan will surely want revenge after this statistical nightmare. And who knows – maybe Udinese Calcio will show they have not just luck, but real quality too. The next matchday will tell.

In the end, one insight remains: in Serie A everything is possible – even that statistics go completely crazy sometimes. That's exactly why we love this sport.