Milanese Fairy Tales and Sicilian Schadenfreude

The Derby Without Justice

What an evening at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza! The Derby della Madonnina ended with a 1-0 for AC Milan – but the numbers tell a different story. With just 0.85 xG against Inter Milan's 1.38 xG, this was a victory that belongs more in the "football folklore" category than the "deserved" one. The Rossoneri have thus written another chapter in their luck book for this year, while the Nerazzurri left the pitch shaking their heads.

The derby was just one part of a matchday that showed: In Serie A, it's not logic that rules at the moment, but Lady Luck herself.

Lucky Winner of the Matchday: AC Milan and Their Golden Touch

If there were a prize for the most efficient point collector of the matchday, AC Milan would undoubtedly win it. With just 0.5 xP, they statistically should have earned not a single point – instead, they bagged three points. The delta of +2.5 points is impressively brazen.

The Rossoneri are now the absolute peak in the league's luck rankings: 17.5 points more than their xP balance of 42.5 points would suggest. This puts them in 2nd place in the official table, but according to honest calculations, they would only be in 7th place. What a performance!

xG Victims: Inter Milan and the Bitter Derby Awakening

On the other side of the luck-misfortune scale stood Inter Milan, who with 2.5 xP should actually have won, but ended up going home with zero points. The delta of -2.5 points made them the biggest unlucky team of the matchday.

Paradoxically, Inter Milan leads both the official and the honest table – with 64 xP, they are statistically the best team in the league. That despite their clear superiority they only have a 3-point lead over Milan shows how cruel football can sometimes be.

Other Lucky Devils and Unlucky Birds

It wasn't just the derby that caused a stir: Genoa CFC beat AS Roma 2-1, even though they should have only earned 1.0 xP (+2 delta). Hellas Verona FC acted similarly brazenly, beating Bologna FC 2-1 despite statistically deserving only one point.

On the unlucky side, Atalanta joined Inter Milan: Despite 2.5 xP, they only got one point against Udinese Calcio (2-2) and had to swallow a delta of -1.5.

Honest Table Situation: The Great Italian Illusion

Looking at both tables reveals the full extent of Serie A's distortion: While AC Milan officially sits in 2nd place, they would only be seventh according to xP. SSC Napoli (3rd vs. 6th) and AS Roma (5th vs. 5th) also benefit from lucky streaks.

The biggest sufferers are ACF Fiorentina (17th vs. 9th according to xP) and AC Pisa (20th vs. 16th). These teams are playing significantly better than their point totals suggest. Particularly bitter: Fiorentina with a -10 point difference and Pisa with -13 points compared to the honest table.

Outlook: When Will the Luck Pendulum Swing Back?

Serie A finds itself in a statistical state of exception. Such lucky and unlucky streaks usually even out over a season – the only question is when. For Inter Milan, positive regression could kick in soon, while Milan and Napoli will have to hope their luck lasts a few more matchdays.

It will also be exciting to see whether teams like Fiorentina and Pisa can finally convert their strong xP values into real points. Matchday 29 will show whether Lady Luck continues her mischief or whether statistics slowly start to assert themselves.