Serie A: When Fortune Directs the Calcio Show

Matchday 4 of Serie A 2025/26 had everything that makes an Italian football heart beat faster: spectacular goals, dramatic twists, and results that defy all logic. While the teams were battling it out on the pitch, Lady Fortune herself was pulling the strings – and her favorites were allowed to celebrate points that, statistically speaking, they hadn't earned.

Match of the Week: When Chances Don't Count

The Derby Capitale between SS Lazio and AS Roma at the Stadio Olimpico delivered a masterclass in finishing efficiency. Roma won 1-0, even though the Expected Goals painted a completely different picture: 1.6 xG for Roma against a modest 0.99 xG for Lazio. A classic example of how efficiency beats dominance in football. Roma made more from less – a virtue that has decided many a Scudetto in Serie A.

Things got even more dramatic at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, where ACF Fiorentina lost 1-2 to Como 1907 despite 2.04 Expected Goals. The Viola failed due to their own inefficiency in front of goal, while the guests from Como converted their few chances (0.78 xG) ice-cold.

Lucky Winner of the Matchday: Naples' Magic Bag

SSC Napoli can celebrate themselves as the big winner of the luck roulette. With a spectacular 3-2 home victory against AC Pisa, the Partenopei grabbed three points even though the Expected Goals only warranted one point (1.89 xG vs. 1.53 xG). A delta of two points – that's football alchemy at its finest.

Atalanta and AC Milan can also count themselves among the lucky winners of the matchday. Both teams secured three points even though their performance statistically only deserved one. The Bergamaschi won at Torino FC 3-0, despite producing fewer Expected Goals (1.19 vs. 1.34) than the hosts.

xG Victims: Parma's Bitter Pill

The hard-luck trophy of the matchday rightfully goes to Parma Calcio. In the goalless draw at US Cremonese, the visitors should have won clearly according to Expected Goals (1.48 vs. 0.44), but had to settle for a meager point. A delta of -1.5 points – that hurts in the soul of every Calcio fan.

US Lecce and Udinese Calcio can also sing a song about bad luck. Both teams lost their matches even though they statistically deserved at least one point.

Honest League Table: The Great Catch-Up

A look at the honest table reveals interesting shifts: While Inter Milan leads both the official and xP table, in a fair world Juventus FC would be in second place (47 xP vs. 46 real points). The Old Lady is one of the few teams performing below their potential.

AC Milan may sit in second place in the official table, but according to Expected Points they only belong in sixth – a massive delta of 14.5 points. The Rossoneri are living dangerously on credit, while ACF Fiorentina experiences the complete opposite: 16th place in reality, but 10th according to xP. The Viola are the prime example of a team that luck has thoroughly abandoned.

Particularly bitter is the situation for AC Pisa and Hellas Verona FC: Both teams sit at the bottom of the table with only 15 points, but would have deserved significantly more based on their performance (26.5 and 25.5 xP respectively).

Outlook: The House of Cards is Wobbling

Serie A is showing its most capricious side this season. Teams like AC Milan and SSC Napoli are riding a wave of luck that can't last forever. Statistics are patient, but they never forget – and sooner or later, they catch up with everyone.

For the upcoming matchdays, it will be exciting to observe whether the Expected Goals will align or whether we'll continue to witness this footballing lottery. One thing is certain: in Italy, it's not only played on the pitch, but Fortune also has her say – and she famously has her own rules.