Dice Cup Serie A: Ignore the Numbers and Win Anyway

Game of the Week: Inter Serves, Udinese Must Get Through

Five to three – sounds like a goal-fest fit for a holiday, but it's really more of a lesson in efficiency madness. Inter Milan racked up a whopping 3.02 xG at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza and held Udinese Calcio to a measly 0.86 xG – a difference of 2.16 that should really have produced a comfortable 3:0, not a lively shootout with three goals conceded. Udinese showed that you can score three goals with little possession and even less danger, as long as the football gods are on a coffee break. In the end, only the win counts for Inter – but anyone who watched their opponent's finishing knows there was some nervous sweating going on that the xG numbers just don't capture.

Lucky Devil of the Matchday: Three Teams, One Delta, Plenty of Cheering

This time there's a triple jackpot: US Sassuolo, US Lecce and Cagliari Calcio all grabbed three points despite xG numbers that, on average, were barely worth half a point (0.5 xP). A delta of +2.5 borders on outrageous – but which fan is going to complain?

Particularly juicy: Cagliari Calcio sit proudly on 9 points in the official table, while the xP table only credits them with a paltry 4.5 – the biggest discrepancy in the entire league. US Lecce marched to a 3:2 win over Monza, even though Monza were clearly the dominant side with 2.46 xG. Sometimes a bolt of lightning beats a game plan.

xG Victims: When Chances Simply Refuse to Fall

On the other side of the luck spectrum, there's an awkward silence at Atalanta, Monza and Juventus FC – all three sitting on a delta of -2.5. Especially painful for Atalanta: they racked up 2.3 xG against Cagliari Calcio but only found the net once, while their opponents scored twice from just 0.77 xG and pocketed all three points. That's what you'd call chance-wastage – just, unfortunately, on the wrong side of the ledger.

Juventus FC also have reason to be annoyed: they built up 2.09 xG against Sassuolo but went home to Turin empty-handed (and with an empty points column). The "Old Lady" remains stuck on a meager 7 points in the official table, while the xP table would place them third with 10 points. Who needs fairness when you've got bad luck?

Honest Table Standings: Who's Wearing a Mask?

At the top, things stay honest: AS Roma and Inter Milan lead both the official and the xP table with 12 points each – two teams who've earned their position fair and square.

Further down, though, things get curious. SS Lazio sit officially in 4th place with 10 points, but the xP table only ranks them 7th with 6.5 points – a delta of +3.5 that reeks of the opposition's naive finishing. Even more extreme: Cagliari Calcio (5th officially, 11th by xP) and US Lecce (12th officially, 19th by xP) are currently living in a parallel universe of luck and chance.

Conversely, ACF Fiorentina are getting hit especially hard: officially just 15th with 3 points, but 6th by xP with 8 points – a deficit of 5, the biggest negative outlier of the entire matchday. Bologna FC (16th officially vs. 8th by xP) and Monza (18th officially vs. 9th by xP) also have every right to feel hard done by. The truth hurts sometimes – especially when you only read it on ehrlichetabelle.com.

Outlook: Will the Truth Prevail?

With only four of 38 matchdays played, it's far too early for doom and gloom at Juventus FC or victory dances at Cagliari Calcio. The xG numbers make it clear: whoever is currently overperforming will eventually have to bow to statistical gravity – and whoever is underperforming can hope for a course correction.

It'll be exciting to see whether AS Roma and Inter Milan can defend their solid lead as deservedly as they've built it, while teams like ACF Fiorentina and Bologna FC slowly try to dig themselves out of their hole of bad luck. The next matchday will show whether the numbers are right – they usually are.