Serie A Matchday 9: When Luck and Misfortune Go Hand in Hand

The Great Paradox of the Honest Table

Matchday 9 of Serie A has once again shown us why ehrlichetabelle.com exists: sometimes it's not the better team that wins, but the luckier one. While some celebrate undeserved three points, others wrestle with a football god who's apparently on vacation. A matchday that showcased the full spectrum between luck and skill – and told us some remarkable stories in the process.

Match of the Week: The Genoa Puzzle at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Genoa CFC vs. US Cremonese (0:2)

Here we have the perfect example of a day when football writes its own laws. Genoa dominated the match with 1.48 xG against only 1.16 xG from Cremonese – and still lost 2-0. An xG discrepancy of 0.32 in favor of the hosts, who ended up empty-handed.

US Cremonese showed how to make the most of few chances, while Genoa once again had to prove that even the best opportunities are worthless if you don't convert them. A masterclass in efficiency – or luck, depending on your perspective.

Lucky Winner of the Matchday: US Cremonese – The Art of Clinical Finishing

With a delta of +2 (3 points earned with only 1 xP deserved), the Lombards have truly "earned" the title of lucky winner. The 0-2 away victory at Genoa was a perfect example of how to achieve maximum return with minimal dominance.

Cremonese sits in 17th place in the official table with 24 points – in the honest table, they would be bottom with only 18 xP. A difference of 6 points that shows: sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Although – three points are three points, however they come about.

xG Victim: Atalanta – When Dominance Goes Unrewarded

Atalanta had to learn how frustrating football can be. Against AC Milan, they dominated with 1.67 xG against only 0.68 xG, but had to settle for a 1-1 draw. A delta of -1.5 (1 point earned with 2.5 xP deserved) makes them the unlucky team of the matchday.

The Bergamaschi thus stand at Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia as an example for all those teams that dominate the football but lack the necessary ruthlessness in front of goal. In the honest table, Atalanta would be in 5th place – four places higher than in reality.

Honest Table Situation: When Mathematics Tells the Truth

Inter Milan leads both tables, but their advantage shrinks from 10 to 12 points over the second-placed team in the honest perspective. Particularly interesting: in the xP table, Juventus FC would be in 2nd place instead of 5th – a hint that the Old Lady would have deserved more.

AC Milan, on the other hand, is the biggest beneficiary of the current situation: 2nd place in the official table, but only 6th according to xP. A difference of 14.5 points between real and expected points – madness! While SSC Napoli (10.5 points difference) is also clearly living beyond their means.

At the other end of the scale, the unlucky ones: AC Pisa (-11.5 points) and Hellas Verona FC (-10.5 points) sit with only 15 points in the bottom two places, although their xP values of 26.5 and 25.5 points respectively would catapult them into midtable. Particularly bitter for Pisa, who would even be in 15th place in the honest table.

Outlook: The Football God Has a Sense of Humor

The next matchday will show whether the trends continue or statistics let their balancing justice prevail. Teams like Cremonese will hope their run continues, while Atalanta and Genoa can hope for a turnaround – mathematics is on their side, at least.

One thing is certain: in Serie A, it won't always be the better team that wins, but sometimes just the one that's in the right place at the right time. And that's exactly why we love this crazy game – even if the honest table sometimes opens our eyes to how unfair it can be.