Matchday 11: When Fortune rolls her dice especially crooked

The fairy tale continues – but who will pay the bill in the end?

The Super League on Matchday 11: a theater of the absurd where the leading roles are assigned to luck and misfortune. While FC Thun continues writing their fairy tale from the top of the table (58 points with 41.5 xP – a lead of 16.5 points over their actual performance), this matchday brought new capers in the eternal battle between reality and statistics.

Match of the Week: Lugano beats Luzern – or was it the other way around?

FC Lugano 2:0 FC Luzern at Stadio di Cornaredo was the perfect example of why Expected Goals can sometimes drive you to despair. FC Lugano won deservedly 2:0 – one might think. Until a look at the xG values turns reality on its head: Lugano 0.96 xG, FC Luzern a whopping 2.2 xG. A discrepancy of 1.24 xG in favor of the losers!

FC Luzern dominated the match by all accounts, but failed at chance conversion and faced a merciless Lugano keeper. Meanwhile, FC Lugano converted two half-chances ice-cold and collected three points that would have been worth 0.5 according to Expected Points. Football can be cruel – especially for statisticians.

Lucky charm of the matchday: Lugano and Servette share the fortune medal

With a delta of 2.5 points each above Expected Points, FC Lugano and Servette FC share the title of luckiest team of the matchday. While Lugano's luck has already been extensively honored, Servette FC pulled a similar trick out of the hat with their 3:1 victory over FC Lausanne-Sport.

The Genevans conceded 1.38 xG against Lausanne's 1.91 xG – and still won comfortably. One could almost think the teams had secretly gotten themselves lucky charms before the matchday. FC Lugano catapults themselves through this lucky streak to 3rd place in the official table, even though they would only stand at 11th place (!) in the honest xP table.

xG victims: Lausanne and Luzern – the tragic heroes

Both FC Lausanne-Sport and FC Luzern collected the maximum points in the bad luck ranking: 2.5 Expected Points, but zero real points. Both teams played decent football but were abandoned by the football goddess.

Particularly bitter for Lausanne: In the honest xP table they would stand at rank 2 with 38 Expected Points – in reality they're languishing at 9th place with only 30 points. A discrepancy of -8 points that painfully demonstrates how unfair football can be. FC Luzern can at least console themselves that their season balance with only 1.5 points of bad luck is still somewhat within reason.

Honest table situation: The great illusion

The current table is a distorting mirror of the true power relations. While FC Thun sits lonely at the top with their 58 points, their xP value of 41.5 points is only the sixth-best in the league. In a fair world, FC Lausanne-Sport (38 xP) would be in 2nd place, followed by FC Basel and Servette FC (both 36.5 xP).

The biggest sufferers are Grasshopper Club Zürich (10.5 points below their Expected Points) and paradoxically FC Lugano, who despite their current high-flying stand a whopping 21.5 points above their xP value – the highest value in the league. This bubble could burst at some point.

Outlook: The bill is yet to come

With 25 matchdays ahead, the season is still at the beginning. The question isn't whether Expected Points will prevail, but when. FC Thun won't be able to continue their fairy tale forever, and FC Lugano is floating on thin ice with their extreme lucky streak.

On the other hand, FC Lausanne-Sport and Grasshopper Club Zürich can have hope: talent and good performances prevail in the long run. Statistics are patient – but relentless. The next matchday could already bring first corrections. Or perfect the chaos. In the Super League, both are possible.