The Zurich Random Number Generator Runs Hot While Lucerne Loses the Lottery

Game of the Week: Basel Throws Away Chances, Grasshopper Enjoys a Gift

St. Jakob-Park, 0:0 – the most honest draw of the matchday, and simultaneously its most dishonest scoreline. FC Basel racked up a hefty 1.92 xG, while Grasshopper Club Zürich limped along with a tired 1.24. A difference of 0.68 – and yet a zero sits under both names at the end. Basel can slap their foreheads, while GC can be grateful the ball simply refused to go in today – on both ends. For the stats nerds among us: this is the kind of match where you'd love to crown the opposing goalkeeper man of the match, even though he was probably just lucky.

Lucky Devil of the Matchday: FC Zürich Wins the Lottery at Letzigrund

There are wins that feel like football. And there are wins that feel like hitting the jackpot. FC Zürich beat FC Luzern 2:1 at their own Letzigrund stadium – with an xG of 1.5 against 2.49. That means that, by expected points, this match should have brought Zürich around 0.5 points, not three. A delta of +2.5 makes FCZ the official lucky devil of the matchday. Close behind are FC Sion and FC Lugano, both with a delta of +2, also working their guardian angels overtime. Speaking of Lugano: the league leaders have now accumulated 13.5 points more than their xPoints would suggest – that's not luck anymore, that's basically its own law of nature.

xG Victim: FC Luzern Play Well and Still Lose Everything

While the celebrations went on at Letzigrund, FC Luzern sat on the other side of the coin. With 2.49 xG, they could have comfortably expected around 2.5 points – instead, they got a bitter zero. A delta of -2.5 makes Luzern the saddest club of the matchday. Not far behind is FC Basel (-1.5), who despite dominating GC only walked away with a single meagre point. And FC Thun can also be annoyed: despite 2.11 xG against FC Lugano (1.91), they suffered a 2:3 defeat at the Stockhorn Arena. Expected points of 1 were met with zero actual points.

The Honest Table: The Throne Is Shaking Badly

Looking at the official table, FC Lugano sits proudly on top with 31 points. In the honest xP table, however, they slide down to 4th place – with a mere 17.5 expected points. According to Expected Points, the true merit champion of this season is BSC Young Boys: 22.5 xP stands against 25 real points – a team that's actually converting performance into results, which apparently deserves special mention in this league.

The big loser of the honest calculation: FC St. Gallen. With only 16 points on paper, but 21 expected points, St. Gallen is the unluckiest team of the entire season (-5). The eastern Swiss side apparently play football for a parallel league in which goals actually go in when they're deserved. FC Zürich too (12 xP vs. 17 points) and FC Sion (18 vs. 22) are sitting noticeably too high in the real table, while FC Luzern (15 xP vs. 12 points) and, once again, St. Gallen would actually deserve a bouquet of flowers from the football gods.

Outlook: Will the House of Cards Soon Collapse?

A 13.5-point gap between table leaders Lugano and their xP value – that's a number that's hardly sustainable in the long run. At some point, regression to the mean will come knocking at the door of the Stadio di Cornaredo, and things could get tight for the chasers, above all for Young Boys, who statistically have long been the best team in the league. FC St. Gallen, too, might reasonably hope that the football gods show some mercy eventually. Until then: keep your eyes on the xG values, not the table – because right now, at least in the Super League, it's lying pretty shamelessly.