When Luck Reigns: A Matchday Full of Expected Goals Drama

The Fairy Tale of FC Thun and the Reality of the Numbers

The 13th matchday of the Super League couldn't have better illustrated why we exist at ehrlichetabelle.com. While FC Thun continues to sit atop the table like a modern Swiss football miracle, the Expected Points tell a completely different story. With a whopping 16.5 points above their xP value, the club from the Bernese Oberland leads not only the table but also our luck statistics – and that with impressive consistency.

But the 13th matchday had even more surprises: while some were literally spooning up luck by the ladleful, others battled against the pitfalls of probability.

Match of the Week: St. Gallen vs Young Boys – When xG Becomes Comedy

At the Kybunpark, we witnessed the perfect example of why football is more than just statistics – but also why statistics can sometimes be heartlessly honest. FC St. Gallen lost 1-4 to BSC Young Boys, even though the Espen created significantly more chances with 2.07 xG than their Bernese guests (1.44 xG).

An xG difference of 0.63 in favor of the losers – that's pretty bitter. While FC St. Gallen squandered their chances like a striker at training camp, BSC Young Boys used their opportunities with the efficiency of a Swiss watch. The result? Three points for Bern, even though St. Gallen played the better game.

Particularly spicy: both teams sit at the top of our luck indices – just on different sides of the coin.

Lucky Dog of the Matchday: Young Boys Riding the Wave of Fortune

BSC Young Boys showed on the 13th matchday how to achieve maximum return with minimal effort. With just 0.5 Expected Points, they statistically should have earned at most one point – they took all three. A delta of +2.5 points makes them the luckiest team of the matchday.

But hey, who's complaining about efficiency? Young Boys currently sit in 6th place with 36 points, although their Expected Points (32.0) would suggest 7th place. A plus of 4 points might not be earth-shattering, but in a league where every point counts, that could mean the difference between Europe and midtable at the end.

xG Victims: St. Gallen and the Misfortune of the Industrious

FC St. Gallen currently leads another, less flattering statistic: with 2.5 Expected Points, the Espen should have earned at least one point on the 13th matchday, maybe even all three. Instead, they went empty-handed – a delta of -2.5 points.

The tragic part: FC St. Gallen sits in 2nd place in the official table despite such setbacks, but here too luck reigns. With 47 points, they stand 13.5 points above their xP value (33.5). In the honest xP table, St. Gallen would only be in 6th place – still respectable, but far from the current euphoria at the Kybunpark.

Honest Table Situation: The Great Redistribution

When we compare the official table with the xP table, we experience a Swiss football earthquake. FC Lugano, currently third with 46 points, would crash to 11th place in the honest table. 21.5 points above the expected value – that's quite remarkable.

On the other side of the spectrum, we find Grasshopper Club Zürich, who despite 31.5 Expected Points only have 21 real points in their account. The Grasshoppers would be in 10th place in a fair world, not at the bottom of the table.

Particularly bitter: FC Lausanne-Sport and Servette FC both suffer from massive bad luck. Lausanne would be in 2nd place with 38 xP (currently 9th), Servette would be in 4th with 36.5 xP (currently 10th). Two teams playing much better football than their table position suggests.

Outlook: Luck is a Fickle Thing

With 23 matchdays still ahead, it remains to be seen whether FC Thun can continue writing their fairy tale or whether the laws of probability will eventually strike. With a luck advantage of 16.5 points, there's still plenty of room to fall.

At the same time, teams like FC Lausanne-Sport and Servette FC can hope that their better football will soon translate into points. In football mathematics, everything usually evens out over time – sometimes it just takes a bit longer.

The next matchday will show whether luck changes its favorites or whether the current lucky charms can continue their streak. One thing is certain: the Expected Goals will continue to be ruthlessly honest – even when reality sometimes has other plans.