Matchday 17 Report: The Alchemists of Lugano and Basel

The Point That Never Was

Matchday 17 of the Super League was a perfect example of why the football gods can be quite the tricksters. While FC Basel at the St. Jakob-Park lined up with 2.41 expected goals against a measly 0.82 from Lausanne and still managed a goalless draw, FC Lugano conjured four goals out of a paltry 1.19 xG at the Stadio di Cornaredo. The art of ignoring Expected Goals has become a true science this season.

Game of the Week: Basel vs. Lausanne – The Great Waste

What happened at the St. Jakob-Park was, footballistically speaking, a crime. FC Basel dominated proceedings by all the rules of the art, created chances worth 2.41 Expected Goals – and failed to get a single ball in the net. That's like being stuck in traffic with a Ferrari: technically impressive, practically completely useless.

With an xG difference of 1.59 in Basel's favor, this game should have ended 3:1 or 2:0. Instead, both teams left the stadium with one point each – Lausanne presumably grinning, Basel shaking their heads. FC Lausanne-Sport once again proved they have perfectly mastered the art of damage limitation.

Lucky Devils of the Matchday: Lugano and Sion as a Double Act

Two teams shared the title of biggest lucky devils: FC Lugano and FC Sion both picked up three points despite deserving only 0.5 Expected Points each. A delta of +2.5 points is quite remarkable.

FC Lugano did it in particularly spectacular fashion. With only 1.19 xG against Servette FC's 1.81, the Ticino side were actually the underdogs – but still won 4:2. That's efficiency at a level that would move any business school professor to tears. Every chance hit the mark, while Servette FC generously distributed their opportunities to the stands.

FC Sion at the Stade de Tourbillon was no less audacious: with 1.48 xG against Grasshopper Club Zürich's 2.02, the Valaisans won 1:0. The Hoppers can sing a song about how it feels to be the better team and still come away empty-handed.

xG Victims: The Tragedy of GC and Servette

The title of biggest unlucky team is shared by Grasshopper Club Zürich and Servette FC – both with a painful delta of -2.5 points. Both teams should have deserved 2.5 Expected Points based on their performance but left empty-handed.

It's particularly bitter for the Genevans: after 1.81 xG against Lugano's mere 1.19, they still lost 2:4. That's like constantly passing "Go" in Monopoly but still going bankrupt. Servette FC thus seamlessly joins the list of this season's unlucky teams – with now -8.5 points difference between actual and Expected Points table.

Honest Table Position: The Great Illusionists

A look at the Expected Points table reveals the true power balance of the league: FC Thun leads both the official and honest table but has 16.5 points too many on their account – the league's biggest lucky charm.

The tragic heroes, meanwhile, languish far below: FC Lausanne-Sport would actually be second according to xP but sits only in 9th place. Servette FC belonged in the top 4 but wallows around 10th. And Grasshopper Club Zürich would actually be safely in mid-table – instead of at the bottom.

FC Lugano, with a +21.5 points difference, has invented their own league. 3rd place in the official table but only 11th according to Expected Points. That's almost magical.

Outlook: When Will Fortuna Strike Back?

The question isn't whether, but when statistics will strike back. Teams like FC Lugano and FC Thun are living beyond their means – but every credit must eventually be repaid. Expected Goals are patient, but not forgetful.

For the plagued unlucky teams like Servette FC and Grasshopper Club Zürich, however, the turnaround might not be far off either. Those who consistently underperform their potential are still owed quite a bit by the football gods. The next matchday will show whether the alchemy of the lucky teams continues to work – or whether the honest table slowly becomes reality.