Matchday 21: When Luck Went Completely Mad in the Super League

On Matchday 21 of the Super League, Lady Fortuna apparently threw her dice out the window and determined the results according to the "anything goes" principle. While some could celebrate undeserved victories, others came up short despite strong performances. A matchday that once again proves: football is sometimes as unfair as the Swiss tax system.

Match of the Week: FC Thun Conjures Magic Against BSC Young Boys

At the Stockhorn Arena, we witnessed the day's ultimate paradox: FC Thun beat BSC Young Boys 4-1, even though the Bernese actually had the better chances with 2.10 Expected Goals (Thun: 1.85 xG). A difference of 0.25 xG in favor of the visitors, but a three-goal advantage for the hosts – that's football alchemy in its purest form.

Once again, Thun proves why they're currently leading the table: they've developed the magical ability to make more from less. While other teams squander their chances like confetti, the Oberland side converts every halfway decent opportunity into hard currency. That's either brilliant finishing or a deal with footballing higher powers.

Lucky Charm of the Matchday: Triple Dose of Fortune

Three teams share the title of biggest lucky charm: Servette FC, FC Basel and none other than FC Thun all grabbed three points despite only deserving one according to Expected Points. A delta of +2 – that's like hitting three jackpots at once in the lottery.

Particularly spicy: Servette FC won 4-2 at FC St. Gallen, even though the Espen actually had the better chances with 1.69 to 1.45 xG. The Geneva side showed an efficiency that would make even Swiss watchmakers jealous. Four goals from 1.45 Expected Goals – that's a conversion rate any online marketer would kill for.

xG Victims: FC Sion and Salt in the Wound

FC Sion leads the hard-luck list with a delta of -1.5. Against FC Luzern at the Stade de Tourbillon, the Valais side dominated with 1.38 to 0.64 xG, but had to settle for a 1-1 draw. Statistically speaking, they should have earned 2.5 Expected Points, but only got one.

This is particularly bitter when you consider that FC Sion actually belongs to the more honest teams in the league – with an overall delta of just +4.5, they stand much closer to their true performance than many other teams. Sometimes football punishes even the righteous.

Honest League Table: The Great Redistribution

The honest table according to Expected Points would completely turn the Super League upside down. While FC Thun would still be at the top (albeit with a much smaller lead), the real winners would be FC Lausanne-Sport and Servette FC – both would find themselves in the upper half of the table.

FC Lugano, on the other hand, currently in 3rd place, would languish in second-to-last position in the xP table. With a luck delta of 21.5 points, the Ticino side is the Las Vegas of the Super League – except here the house always wins. Conversely, Grasshopper Club Zürich wouldn't need to worry about relegation but could look comfortably toward mid-table.

The differences are so stark that you wonder if the teams might be playing in different parallel universes.

Outlook: Will Luck Ever Become Rational?

After 21 matchdays, we're already well past the halfway point of the season, yet the distribution of luck shows no signs of normalizing. FC Thun and FC Lugano continue to live dangerously beyond their means, while FC Lausanne-Sport and Grasshopper Club Zürich must hope that the pendulum will eventually swing back.

For Matchday 22, it's expected that statistics will eventually demand their tribute. The only question is: Will the lucky charms be able to defend their undeserved positions, or will xG reality finally catch up with them? In a league where four goals from 1.45 Expected Goals are possible, anything is conceivable – even the impossible.