Bern lacht, Zürich weint: Wenn ein einziges Wochenende die Illusion der Tabelle zerbröselt

Hook-Intro

Six games, six little truths – and one big lie called the "official table". Matchday 6 of the Super League once again shows the gap between what's on the scoreboard and what actually happened on the pitch – a gap wide enough to drive a team bus through. BSC Young Boys sit top with 14 points, though by xG they'd only have deserved 11.5 – yet Bern remains the most honest number one in the league. Elsewhere, though, there's some serious fibbing going on, and no referee can blow a whistle for that.

Game of the Week

The biggest xG discrepancy of the matchday came, of all places, from the clash between FC Thun and FC Lausanne-Sport – 0:0 on the scoreboard, even though FC Thun's 2.28 xG against a measly 1.00 xG for their opponents should have made this an easy win. An xG diff of 1.28 and still not a single goal at the Stockhorn Arena – football irony in its purest form. If you can't put the ball in the net, the prettiest stats in the world won't save you.

An honorable mention also goes to FC Luzern, who beat Vaduz 2:1 at the swissporarena and did so deservedly with 2.39 xG against 1.15 xG – one of the few results of the day that satisfies both the football gods and the statisticians alike.

Lucky Devil of the Matchday

If you bet on BSC Young Boys here, you'd hit the jackpot. The Bernese won their away game at FC Zürich 4:2, but managed only 1.28 xG in the process – while FCZ, with 1.88 xG, were actually the dominant side. Matchday xP of 0.5 against actual points earned of 3: a delta of a whopping 2.5. That makes BSC Young Boys not just league leaders, but also this matchday's poster child for lottery winners.

Grasshopper Club Zürich (3 points on 1.0 xP) and FC Lugano (3 points on 2.5 xP) also benefited from the football gods, albeit more modestly. FC Lugano thus stays true to its role as a regular guest on the luck table – fate seems to enjoy dropping by the Stadio di Cornaredo.

xG Victim

On the flip side stands FC Zürich, who played convincingly at home in the Letzigrund against BSC Young Boys (1.88 xG) but ended up empty-handed with a 2:4 drubbing. Matchday xP of 2.5 against actual zero points – a delta of -2.5 that could hardly sting more. If you play like that and still lose, you've got every right to feel hard done by.

FC Thun (delta -1.5) and FC St. Gallen (delta -1) also join the ranks of the unlucky. FC St. Gallen lost at Grasshopper Club Zürich despite 2.06 xG against the opponent's 2.26 xG – a tight game that could easily have gone the other way.

The Honest Table

A glance at the xP table quickly makes clear: BSC Young Boys stay unbeaten at the top there too – credit where credit's due. But behind them, things get interesting. FC Sion, currently only seventh with 6 points, would sit second in a just world with 11 xP – a delta of -5 that speaks volumes about the Valaisans' misfortune. Servette FC face a similar fate: officially only tenth with 4 points, but third in the xP table with 10.5 – the biggest negative delta in the entire league (-6.5).

At the other end of the truth scale sits FC Basel: officially third with 10 points, but limping along in the xP table with a measly 6 – a surplus of 4 points that, judged strictly on performance, you'd hardly begrudge them for having. FC Lugano (officially second, xP rank 5) also lives comfortably off its special account with the football gods.

Outlook

The question ahead of the next matchday is: how long can teams like FC Basel, FC Lugano, or indeed BSC Young Boys keep relying on their luck before the statistics strike back? And when will FC Sion and Servette FC finally get the points their performances actually deserve? The Honest Table says: it's time for a correction. Whether the football gods see it the same way remains to be seen – but statistics, as we know, have a long memory.