Matchday 9: The Great Swiss Lucky Roulette Keeps Spinning

The honest tables reveal the whole truth to us week after week – and this truth is sometimes more beautiful than reality, but sometimes more brutal. On Matchday 9 of the Super League, it became clear once again: Fortune is a fickle lady who likes to distribute her favor unequally. While some teams continue to ride their lucky streaks, others must bitterly experience what it means to show better performance than the table reflects.

Match of the Week: Basel Shows How It's Done

At St. Jakob-Park, FC Basel demonstrated how to convert Expected Goals into real goals. With an impressive 3:0 against FC Winterthur and an xG value of 2.7 to 0.88, this was the most honest result of the matchday. Here everything just clicked: Basel not only dominated statistically but also consistently converted their superiority into goals. A textbook example that the xG philosophy sometimes does work out – even if far too rarely in this league.

FC Winterthur, meanwhile, confirmed their precarious situation: With only 0.88 xG, the team from the Eulach city remained practically chanceless. Reality here is even more sobering than the honest table would suggest.

Lucky Winner of the Matchday: The Holy Trinity of Fortune

Three teams shared the lucky winner crown of Matchday 9: FC St. Gallen, FC Sion, and FC Lugano each grabbed three points despite only deserving one Expected Point according to xG calculations. A delta of +2 for each – that's quite remarkable.

Particularly spicy: FC St. Gallen won at BSC Young Boys 2:1, even though the xG only slightly favored the visitors (1.86 to 1.58). Sometimes just a touch more efficiency in front of goal is enough. FC Lugano at Stadio di Cornaredo and FC Sion at Stadion Letzigrund showed similar cold-bloodedness and converted narrow xG advantages into three golden points.

xG Victims: The Bad Luck Trio Suffers On

On the other side of the luck spectrum, we find three fellow sufferers: Servette FC, FC Zürich, and Grasshopper Club Zürich all had to leave empty-handed despite each deserving one point according to Expected Points.

Particularly bitter for Grasshopper Club Zürich: The 0:1 against FC Sion at Stadion Letzigrund was what felt like the hundredth match this season where the Hoppers produced more Expected Goals (0.99) than real goals (0). With a total delta of -10.5 points, they're the saddest example of how you can end up in the basement despite decent performances.

Honest Table Situation: The Great Redistribution

The honest table based on Expected Points continues to reveal drastic injustice: FC Thun sits atop both officially and according to xP, but their lead of 16.5 points over Expected Points shows that an unprecedented lucky streak is at work here.

FC Lausanne-Sport would be second in the honest table (38 xP) but officially sits only in 9th place – a drama in eight acts that gets rewritten weekly. Similarly bitter is the fate of Servette FC (4th by xP, 10th officially) and Grasshopper Club Zürich (10th by xP, 11th officially).

On the other end of the spectrum, FC Lugano (+21.5) and FC St. Gallen (+13.5) are ruthlessly exploiting their lucky streaks. In the honest table, they would be much further back – FC Lugano would even be only in 11th place instead of officially in 3rd.

Outlook: Will Luck Finally Become More Fair?

With 27 of 36 matchdays still ahead, there's plenty of time for statistical justice. The question is: When will the pendulum swing back? Teams like FC Lausanne-Sport and Grasshopper Club Zürich have accumulated so much "luck credit" that a turnaround seems practically inevitable.

FC Thun won't be able to continue their fairy-tale run forever – 16.5 bonus points are extraordinary even by Swiss standards. And FC Lugano? 21.5 points above Expected Points is a statistical miracle that must find its end sooner or later.

The honest tables remain patient – they know that at the end of a long season, mathematics usually wins. Until then, we can enjoy this wonderful chaos that makes Swiss football so unpredictable.